After a August where key holdings like Gold and Software delivered excellent returns, it is now time to turn to September where it will take a new mindset to navigate properly. The data and price action will be key as always but with Midterms around the corner and the Warsh Era kicking into high gear, staying nimble around different strategies and risk management will be a big focus.

1st, if you want to review how the August write up went, I have opened it up so free subscribers can see how key it was for navigating the past month.

Today’s report will cover the September portfolio build and the key data I am looking at to create an edge to finish strong in a often very volatile Q3.

Speaking of volatility, the data below shows where VIX Futures often start to ramp hard into September and the 1st half of October during a most years.

The Week Ahead

I’m introducing a new format to help us navigate each week with seasonal returns by day for the week ahead. I hope you find it valuable.

The top bar show the monthly and weekly historical returns with the best and worst day from a seasonal standpoint for the upcoming week. The bar below it shows each day and the week as a whole.

Then it shows the typical path for the entire month, in this case it shows all years with the red path being Midterm years.

My favorite data is below the typical path where I highlight key data points, it works as a very nice cheat sheet.

The big catalyst this week will be on Friday where we get the jobs report. My lean is that if the numbers come in weak, it could cause a fade to the rate hike odds for September, which would mean yields come down, TLT / GLD potentially go up.

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Seasonality Guides

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September Market Outlook

I stand by initial thesis laid out in August where we can see some strength and the

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Tomorrow we get the much anticipated NVDA earnings, PCE data, and close the week off with the first Jackson Hole speech from Warsh. Here is what I am seeing in the market and a few of my favorite trade setups here.

But first, I want to highlight the August Report released earlier this month, many of the key idea’s and data points are important here and its a good time to review it (Majority of the report can be accessed without being premium subscriber, just fyi)

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NVDIA Earnings and The Trade Setup

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Nvidia is setting up the path laid out in the August Report, see below where it filled the open gap right at support and now I think there is a good chance it fills the upside gap at 224 and potentially 234 post earnings.

The trade I like is two fold.

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The market had consolidation last week after it hit some initial upside targets and soon might be the time to start scaling back risk before the typical late-Q3 seasonal volatility becomes more dominant. This is especially true in Mid Term Years where historically the best buying window of the cycle is only a few weeks away.

One of my favorite investors, Dan Niles recently shared similar thoughts “With more than 80% of the unwind finished in ~3 weeks, it would imply this should be mostly over by next week…At which point I can go back to worrying about 1) the median 10% drawdown typically seen on the S&P from peak to trough during 7/30 -11/9 in mid-term years since 1990 and 2) related to this, the US Treasury trying to bring down long-term yields and the bond market saying it will not work with yields across the curve now roughly flat to 6 bps above the levels on Tuesday prior to these actions.”

But, with that being said, doesn’t mean I don’t see some nice short term setups here to the long side. Let’s dive in.

Events This Week:

• Bessent to speak on Iran - Monday

• Wednesday has PCE Inflation data and NVDA Earnings

• Warsh to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday at 10AM

Key Earnings This Week

• Tuesday - INTU, ZM

• Wednesday - NVDA, CRM, CRWD

• Thursday - S, IREN, MRVL, AFRM

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Where are We?

We are 10 weeks away from Midterm Elections. The average path below shows how much risk often shows up in September and October.

Jackson Hole (Warsh Era)

Notice the path below and how similar it is to recent price action. The left side shows 15 trading days prior to Jackson Hole and the right side shows the 30 days after. The data at the top shows the average return is negative over that time frame but notice the red path, that is the return during Mid Term Years. (Maybe a hedge isn’t the worse idea)

One last point on this, the chart below from Nautilus compares our current year to historical Mid Term Years. I point all this out not to imply loading puts is the play, just making sure the risk associated with this upcoming window is considered.

Nvidia Earnings

I’ll have a deeper dive on this Tuesday but notice the seasonal pattern for the semi sector shows the recent weakness, rally, and further decline. Keep this in mind, especially if SMH / SOXX / NVDA fill some of those upside gaps this week

Final Thoughts

I’ll be releasing my trade idea’s tomorrow for premium members but I’ll leave you with this. I shared this seasonal chart recently and it has closely followed with recent market movements. I know I shared some risk in the markets earlier but that 1st half of September has been known to lure in some late bulls and also squeeze out aggressive bears before the fall. I think the key is be open minded when it comes to timing and calculate the risk around your trades and when the risk can really spike.

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The data in this report is extensive and serves as a great tool each year to navigate Bitcoins seasonal trends and cycles. Be sure to make it to the end where I share the Almanac guide and provide a special discount for premium access.

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The Halving Cycle

One of the most followed and tracked cycles in the history of finance. The key that has often hurt later investors and traders in this asset is that the returns have diminished over time.

The Presidential Cycle

Just as the index’s track the US Presidential Cycle, Bitcoin does as well. The Midterm year is the weakest but can often be a strong setup for savvy traders who profit in both bear and bull cycles. Pre-Election years can be challenging for impatient investors but for those who navigate it properly often are rewarded with strong returns in Election & Post Election years.

Mid Term Seasonality

Pre Election Seasonality

Election Seasonality

Post Election Seasonality

Bitcoin Seasonality - All Years

The Bitcoin Almanac

I like to have cheat sheets for different patterns and this one pager acts as just that. This make it easier to spot the key windows in each year for strength or weakness while also breaking down the core concepts that can create an edge as a trader or investor.

If you found this content valuable, consider becoming a premium subscriber where I release new data each week and share my own trading and investing journey.

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Index’s are following the path laid out in last weeks report, Gold is proving why it was the key target with the dollar now rolling over, and the bond market is starting to create some fear behind the scenes. Lets dive in.

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Index’s

Spy pulled back to initial support but still has the unfilled gap below 760 that could be a good zone to target.

For overnight, watch 7746 and 7734 for rejections levels or breakouts.

Nasdaq tagged the upside target and came to a halt

Overall, I think we could tag that 760 area on SPY before another move higher but NVDA earnings next week likely is the key. I like to sell rips and sell flushes for now when it comes to the index’s.

Speaking of NVDA, still in no mans land. A tag of 733 before earnings is a short, a tag of 212 before earnings is likely a buy.

Gold

The GLD trade has been one of the best of the year, but at this stage for my long option positions I am selling rips until we have a good pullback. Yesterday for example there was a nice retrace and overnight calls doubled. The fundamental story is strong but from a trader mindset, greed on short term positions is not something I am looking to have.

But, the setup continues to look really good

The dip was bought yesterday that helped confirm the upside move today

The other piece of this is the dollar rejected near that same resistance level I have been sharing for quite some time now. This adds fuel for precious metals.

Bonds

The bond market has been hitting levels not seen since 2007 (great year), which sounds scary but the market really hasn’t flinched (yet). This is what I am watching for TLT, a potential scare setting an all time low under 80 that is likely a buying opportunity as capitulation hits. The other path shows the breakout today above the 20D, its possible the bottom is in.

Individual Stocks

Our long term positions continue to do well, lets dive into some charts and key levels

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August has started out with incredible strength as market reached new highs. Now as we enter a highly volatile time of year it will be key to look at the proper time frames for any thesis. Its easy to lose sight of potential upside and downside when investors and traders get tunnel vision as they watch price go against them and then they lose sight of the bigger picture on longer time frames. I think this is especially key for the rest of Q3 where it has been one of the strongest quarters of the year already for my own strategies.

This was the portfolio build released for July and while some names have been added and others profit taken, the performance has done well. The August portfolio build will be shared later on in this report.

Seasonality Roadmaps

VIX - Watch for volatility to rise after the 1st Half of August

IWM - Small caps often start to stall out in the 2nd half of August and bottom in early October. The Russell 2000 is the highest-beta expression of the presidential cycle. Its midterm-year drawdown is the deepest of the four and its pre-election-year advance is the largest. The clean way to trade the cycle in small caps has historically been the midterm-October to pre-election-July window.

SPX - bigger picture, we are getting closer and closer to what has often been an ideal buy zone of the cycle. Average returns from November to end of April is >18%

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Gold RUSH

The window of strength in August was expected and should the dollar continue to roll over it can give Gold a further boost into the fall season. Here is some nice data points from Tom McClellan highlighting where weakness could continue for the dollar.

“Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (COT Report data) by actually upping their collective net short position. If you look back at other price tops in this chart, you may notice that when the commercials do this, adding shorts after the downturn, it means that there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.”

Longer term Gold has a very strong fundamental case for further upside but short term want to see how it acts around that August 19-20th timeframe and might be a good spot to take some additional profit or hedge.

Watch for a gap fill and a reaction near the 200D (red line)

Market Outlook and Portfolio for August

I’ll start by summing up my general view here. I believe we see a brief pullback soon before higher and expect the market holds up pretty well in August.

But, a quick correction in September / October I think is likely, there are some key factors that could derail this even quicker that we will review. A few topics this section will focus on

• What path does oil take, the bearish or bullish seasonal trend

• Software Sector Hitting some Key Levels

• Nvdia and SOXX Analysis

• Index Targets for August and September (SPY,QQQ,IWM)

• August Portfolio

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Apple is a prime example (earnings upcoming)

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Back to FOMC, when changes happen with the Fed, specifically a new chair, they are often tested with the market. Average drawdowns are > 10%

Volatility

The VIX has been teasing breaking over 20 for some time but hasn’t had the big spike needed to make a nice bottom. Part of that reasoning may be because of positioning.

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“The greatest good you can do for another is not just to share your riches, but to reveal to him his own.” -Benjamin Disraeli

We are squarely in the high volatility window of this cycle and it hasn’t disappointed. Staying hedged isn’t the worst idea as some of these selloffs can be violent and red flags continuing to mount. Although, I think some upside trades continue to show themselves and I expect more this week. Stay nimble, embrace the volatility, and it’s okay not to trade an environment that doesn’t suite your own trading style. Why rush it?

Market Backdrop for the Week Ahead

• Weekly Seasonal

• FOMC - Wednesday

• Earnings Calendar

• Index Technicals

• Week Ahead Trade Idea 💡

Ketchup on the 🌮 ‘s

The Iran war trapped many last week as traders positioned for a “taco” but the taco never came. Over the weekend we are seeing some signs of things cooling down in Iran and the White House. Futures are up big currently.

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Taco’s don’t taste as good over the weekend! I believe we won’t know how this Iran war shakes out until early August as you will see in the seasonality below. The path we break into will be huge for the market but history says 2nd Term Presidents often find a way to get oil down before Mid Term Elections.

Weekly Seasonal

Tech may be poised to bottom (short term at least) this week. FOMC is Wednesday as that particular date does have a bearish lean with Thursday seasonally bullish. That combination may be a good setup for buying the dip mid week (if we see one)

FOMC

With what we have been seeing in yields, a more hawkish lean from Warsh may be partially priced in already. Any softer or more dovish tone could setup a bounce in something like TLT and rate sensitive names. With futures currently green from the Iran news over the weekend, TLT is showing up nearly a full 1% in the overnight market. I like the idea of being patient this week around FOMC, I want to let the setup come to me and then execute.

Earnings

Big slate of earnings this week, one of them is my trade idea with a 100% hit rate historically for the setup I’m seeing. Wednesday remains the key date to watchout for with META, MSFT, on top of FOMC. Thursday we have AAPL and AMZN who could be the saviors if Wednesday turns into a disaster.

We know META is spending more capex, so I don’t see risk there for the overall market. Microsoft earnings “reaction” is likely key for the software sector in general. A strong move could be a big one to the upside.

Apple has followed the seasonal path I shared to start the month and really helped carry the portfolio. Wouldn’t be surprised if it cooled off a bit.

Index’s

S&P500

With futures still green as I write this, a hold and break above 746 would be key to get continued strength. Rejecting there could setup a downside target near 725

NASDAQ

Tech filled the gap on Friday that just so happened to align with the weekly 20MA. Not surprised to see a bounce here but will it be more than that? Clearing 703 level would be a good start but then watch that downtrend line in the low 720’s.

Week Ahead Trade Idea

Amazon has a 100% hit in the 1H of August during a Mid Term Year. Lets review what I am seeing here.

Final Thoughts

Vol season is my favorite time of year, lots of trading opportunities. I wanted to open up some more data this week to free subs so hope you enjoyed.

My premium group will be getting a deeper dive for what I think comes next. The Polycarp Q3 Portfolio continues to perform well and I will be dropping the August build this week. Cheers!

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You’ll see below that during typical Mid Term Years we see oil ramp up from here and peak at the end of September. But, and this is a key but, during 2nd Term Presidents, oil often just keeps heading lower into year end.

What path do you think we have taken so far? They both align the same really until the end of July. So I hope you all see now is the time to really see what path it is going to take and plan accordingly. The tell should be what happens that first week of August. If it declines from there, 2nd term path, tailwind for equities. If it continues higher, headwind for equities.

On one hand we have Iran chaos escalating, on the other we have Mid Terms coming up and a highly motivated Trump to squash this as soon as possible. What lever can or will he pull?

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My own lean? Hard to say here, but I expect a correction in Q3, oil ramping would definitely be a reason that could happen. The other view I see is that the market rallies in early August before the correction begins, so both could be true where oil tops but the market still corrects due to other reasons (there are several)

What path do you think oil takes?

I’ll be sharing my own strategies and positions as we move forward from here, if you haven’t checked out the premium access, it is a great time to give it a spin. Cheers!

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The thesis that the market should hold up into Opex week proved true but sure enough, as the week came to a close we started to see escalation out of the Middle East and Semiconductor catalyst hit the news creating weakness across the index’s and key leaders.

I think over the next few weeks and months until November the difficulty level of trading this market will increase, but for those positioned to ride out a storm, it might be much less challenging. Lets dive into it.

Reviewing The 1st Half of July

I want to briefly go over the performance of the 1H July Portfolio build that was laid out in the Q3 Market Outlook. See below.

Pretty happy with that result. Now lets review the plans for the week ahead.

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A Regime Shift?

One of the biggest questions of any market is what phase of the cycle are we in. Is it early cycle? Is it late cycle? Well, regardless of the cycle I wanted to share this cheat sheat with you all showing what typically works in each environment. Thank you for the support.

Technical Picture

S&P Futures - want to see if this 50D support holds to start the week. Since April it has been very solid support.

Nasdaq Futures - last time the weekly sell signal hit on the RSI was the summer of 2024, Tech bottom in early August. Not saying we get the same result this time but something to watch.

Semi’s

Was this a great callout or what? The big question is when the bounce comes, and its coming, will it be just that?

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Earnings This Week

Lots of big earnings this week including Tesla, Servicenow, Google, Intel, and plenty more. I am curious to see if we have already seen peak earnings in some of the leaders or will the reports this week create a bounce opportunity?

Tesla - will be watching to see if TSLA breaks out of this setup, an upside target would be 475 gap fill, downside would be 237 level. Currently below the 200D gives me pause in trying a long here.

NOW - ServiceNow could be explosive post earnings, risk I see here is enterprise spend on AI hurting these software names. The IBM news recently strengthened that risk. But, over the longer term, I still see this as great buying opportunity for my own portfolio. We have the lower high, now we need to confirm it and push higher from here.

Seasonality

Tech weakness shouldn’t be a surprise as we are currently in the weakest window of the Mid Term Cycle. Below you can see in 2nd Term President Cycles, July is often the weakest month.

For the market overall, we need to keep in mind the bigger picture. We are squarely in the risk off zone.

2H July / August Portfolio and Trade Ideas

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This week we have CPI, Earnings Season Kickoff, Warsh Speaking, and its Opex. All the ingredients to create some short term chaos.

We are nearing some important dates I shared in the quarterly write up and I think this week’s paper will be a good chance to review where we are and where I think we could go next.

Btw, if you ever have a company or thesis you want me to do a write up or review on, don’t hesitate to reach out.

Last week started off with a bang and was a great week overall as some of our key setups played out.

• Oracle calls ran from 2.60 to 4.50

• ServiceNow calls ran from 6.20 to over 13 a contract

• BABA calls ran from 2.25 to over 6 a contract

And a slew of our longer term names have done well

Now lets dive into the plan for the week ahead and the key risk / opportunities I’m seeing here.

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Earnings Season Kickoff

It’s already time for earnings season, the financials will be one key spot I'm watching and will share some data on that later but Netflix and Taiwan Semi are likely even more important, especially TSM.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it test that upper trendline again and try for a breakout but could also be a great sport to scale into targeting that gap fill near 345 as prep or a hedge for a correction in the Fall. (Especially when looking at Mid Term Seasonality)

The #1 print at 460 will likely be a key level to watch for a reaction if we get there this week

Semiconductors Setting Up

I think the semi’s will be key over the next couple weeks to see if we get the typical seasonal rally before rolling and likely dragging the Nasdaq down with it.

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The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year, over 400% return in 3 trading days.

The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year, over 400% return in 3 trading days.

How did I find it before the move? I'm going to share a repeatable strategy I use to find these type of setups.

Buffet has talked many times about how the market is a game of patience where you only have to swing when you want to. A keep piece of this is impulse control, there is no reason to chase trades on a daily basis but instead of embrace JOMO (Joy on Missing Out) and reject FOMO (Fear on Missing Out). Fear is not our friend, I prefer joy myself

Most of my best trades come when I see some type of headline or reading hit where a stock is rapidly falling based off of some event or random news of the day. What I like to do when I see this is review the technicals first. What is the 4 hour, daily and weekly RSI reading, is it above or below key weekly or daily moving averages, and has it filled or near any gaps?

Next, I review the seasonality over the next few weeks and months for the current year overall and the current year of the presidential cycle (Midterm Year this year as an example).

Follow that up and review any large prints that might have hit in recently to see if any levels stand out. You can see the 2nd largest print came in on 6/26, adding to the thesis that this could be a good trade here.

Lastly, review any catalyst upcoming.

After reviewing that it should paint a very clear picture on if this is a compelling setup or not. Apple checked many boxes, RSI extended to downside, near key support, large print in the tape, a gap fill just below, and incredibly strong seasonality.

The trade shared on 6/29 with premium members was APPL 7/24 295C’s at 2.95

Those calls ended Thursday 7/2 at 17.30 a contract, nearly a 500% gain in 3 days.

This is a repeatable trade setup that anyone can use. It just takes a bit of patience and a process that works for your own trading style.

Hope you enjoyed. Cheers 🍻

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Last week saw significant weakness in tech and semi’s with probably one of the best discussions of the year as Palantir’s Alex Karp expressed a compelling argument for how CEO’s are currently viewing the offerings of Anthropic and OpenAI. I’m seeing important levels hit on key sectors and several technicals aligning with seasonality to create some nice summer setups. However, there is definitely a sense of change coming, maybe some trouble in paradise around the corner.

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How To Find Fat Pitch Setups

The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year. How did I find out before hand? Buffet has talked many times about how the market is a game of patience where you only have to swing when you want to. A keep piece of this is impulse control, there is no reason to chase trades on a daily basis but instead of embrace JOMO (Joy on Missing Out) and reject FOMO (Fear on Missing Out). Fear is not our friend, I prefer joy myself

Most of my best trades come when I see some type of headline or reading hit where a stock is rapidly falling based off of some event or random news of the day. What I like to do when I see this is review the technicals first. What is the daily and weekly RSI reading, is it above or below key weekly or daily moving averages, and has it filled or near any gaps. Next, I review the seasonality over the next few weeks and months for the current year overall and the current year of the presidential cycle (Midterm Year this year as an example). Follow that up and review any large prints that might have hit in Volume Leaders over the past quarter to see if any levels stand out.

Lastly, review any catalyst upcoming.

After reviewing that it should paint a very clear picture on if this is a compelling setup or not. Apple checked many boxes, RSI extended to downside, near key support, a gap fill just below, and incredibly strong seasonality.

The trade shared on 6/29 with premium members was APPL 7/24 295C’s at 2.95

Those calls ended Thursday 7/2 at 17.30 a contract, nearly a 500% gain in 3 days.

This is a repeatable trade setup that anyone can use.

It just takes a bit of patience and a process that works for your own trading style.

Feel free to join where we search for these setups each week

Is Energy Bottoming?

I’m seeing lots of calls for energy to bottom based off its recent weakness combined with the geopolitical risk of Iran. It’s a solid thesis, I get it. But, is now the time to try and play that move?

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• And lots more including company deep dives, dark pool data, and my own trading journal navigating the greatest soap opera on earth (The Market)

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Lets dive in…..

How Did Q2 Outlook Perform?

I had Claude run an analysis and grade the Q2 Trade Idea’s, I did this for Q1 as well and was released in the prior quarterly write up. I will keep doing this throughout each quarterly paper.

Claude gave an A-, I would call it a C+. Execution wasn’t to my expectation and so this time around I will be sharing a Q3 Portfolio and Strategy for each Month of the quarter.

The Midterm Year Playbook: Putting the Odds in Your Favor

“The smallest historical drawdown has been -7.4%, while the largest was -41.8%. What determines which scenario plays out? Leverage, sentiment, and earnings growth. Right now, we’re sitting with accelerating leverage, sentiment that’s elevated but not panicked, and a market that’s priced for perfection.” - Quote from the Q1 Outlook

“Every major economy on earth wants crude lower, geopolitical premiums don’t stay bid forever” - Quote from the Q2 Outlook

Q3 Seasonality

Each month has its own flavor but the quarter as a whole is the most volatile of the year. Later on in the write up you will find the cheat sheet guide for each month.

Volatility Seasons kicks off in Q3 and with it includes a market where staying nimble will be key and remembering the north star can be very profitable. (November buying Window)

1H July Window - One reason I wanted to add the monthly breakdowns of the quarter is because of the chart above. There is strong reason to believe the 1st half of July is generally bullish, “Since 2010, this seasonal period has been negative only once for the indices.”

Always key to remember there are no guarantees in the market. Many of these seasonal edges are getting more widespread attention, leaving room for Wallstreet to shift this often strong window into a trap. Speaking of traps…

The Weakest Window of The Year

For a Mid Term Year, this is the one quarter where being a tad more cautious has the potential to pay off. You can see in the chart where Q4 is usually the risk- on setup.

My quarterly write ups likely have created the most value of any of my releases. From alpha generating seasonal setups to navigating the latest dark pool prints, and research on some of the best under the radar names out there, I try to really create exceptional value for my subscribers.

This write up even includes a Cheat Sheet for Q3 Seasonals Specifically for each month, each week. If you haven’t tried out the premium access, not a bad time to take it for spin.

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My Core Thesis for Q3 2026:

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First of all, let me start by saying if you aren’t leveraging the alpha generated on that platform cannot be understated. Incredibly useful tool for my own trade and investment idea’s. Now Let’s Dive In.

Massive Dark Pools

The QQQ’s saw the 2nd Largest Trade Cluster (All Time) today.

DIA - The Dow saw the #1 Print Hit the Tape

SNDK - Sandisk 2x Levered ETF Gets a #1 Print (SNXX)

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What Does All This Mean?

My lean has been that we see some weakness this week before the market rallies in the 1st Half of July. These prints strengthen my thesis of short term weakness. Will need to see how things play out over the next few days to see if that July rally shows up.

Want to see if that 7330 level is tagged and how the market reacts from there. A flush under there could setup a lower low below 7260 level. Would be surprising to see in July but with this market, maybe it comes fast.

KOSPI - Korea is beyond extended on longer time frames.

(Full Disclosure, I am currently short via 3x ETF KORU)

The memory euphoria begins and ends in Korea. Watching for

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One reason the dip was bought last week was because of the pinning associated with Opex Week, especially triple or quad witching events.

June specifically is historically weak following these expirations.

I have built a series of tool’s, one of them being a library of all documented seasonals and market mechanics that have major impacts on the market. While I have been leveraging this data for years, I wanted to share a cheat sheet with you all to help navigate markets in the future.

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SPX - Key Levels

Want to watch 7315, 7250, and 7150 as support levels. I think the dip is bought as July is often very strong with a target of 7700 to start, but there are other key signals I am watching giving me pause that new highs are a guarantee. Will review here shortly.

If you have been on the fence for joining the premium sub, the next phase of this market I think will be challenging and we are only warming up for the insights shared on how to navigate it.

Consider joining for all the latest updates each week, the summer special is still going.

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Dow Jones Seasonality

When viewing the seasonality for the Dow during Mid Term Year's you can see one

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Seasonality - Bluekurtic has a great chart showing weakness around this time year “Since 2000, week after Juneteenth has been positive just 27% of the time for the S&P 500 and 37% for the Nasdaq 100”

Index’s - watch for a gap fill on SPY around 742 as a potential area to swing for new highs. I am not a fan of going long the market here but I do think there is a chance we squeeze higher during July. The overall market to me is showing late cycle signals and if semi’s top it will be hard to continue to grind the index’s higher.

Semiconductors - if the market leader tops, what does that mean for the market?

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Gold setup is very strong with FOMC as potential last hurdle this week

OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Energy setup is not favorable here

SEASONALITY - Seasonality for Energy is also quite weak with July having one of the worse hit rates for upside. FOMC and Future’s roll this week likely creates more volatility than usual for the day to day seasonality map.

SIGNAL OF THE WEEK - Seasonal Warning: Weakest Part of June Is Still Ahead

• June 14–27 is historically one of the weakest periods of the year for stocks.

• Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing often leads to:

  • Profit-taking in winners.

  • Rotation into laggards.

  • Lower trading volumes.

• Historically, avoiding only:

  • The second half of June, and

  • The second half of September
    has significantly improved returns versus remaining fully invested during those periods.

Hope you enjoyed the read, if you aren’t a paid subscriber, consider joining the team as I give out company deep dives, discord access to my own trading journal, overall market analysis, and take request for data and insights on your favorite companies, cheers! (Current offer is literally <$16 a month)

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Each week we release the latest readings and seasonality across the market to subscribers, if you enjoy these reports a like, share, or positive review is always appreciated.

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Trimble tumbles

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OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Humana overbought on RSI but signal not bearish

SEASONALITY - To Celebrate reaching a top riser in Substack, here is my Index Seasonality Cheat Sheet, thank you for all the support.

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