This week we have CPI, Earnings Season Kickoff, Warsh Speaking, and its Opex. All the ingredients to create some short term chaos.

We are nearing some important dates I shared in the quarterly write up and I think this week’s paper will be a good chance to review where we are and where I think we could go next.

Btw, if you ever have a company or thesis you want me to do a write up or review on, don’t hesitate to reach out.

Last week started off with a bang and was a great week overall as some of our key setups played out.

• Oracle calls ran from 2.60 to 4.50

• ServiceNow calls ran from 6.20 to over 13 a contract

• BABA calls ran from 2.25 to over 6 a contract

And a slew of our longer term names have done well

Now lets dive into the plan for the week ahead and the key risk / opportunities I’m seeing here.

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Earnings Season Kickoff

It’s already time for earnings season, the financials will be one key spot I'm watching and will share some data on that later but Netflix and Taiwan Semi are likely even more important, especially TSM.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it test that upper trendline again and try for a breakout but could also be a great sport to scale into targeting that gap fill near 345 as prep or a hedge for a correction in the Fall. (Especially when looking at Mid Term Seasonality)

The #1 print at 460 will likely be a key level to watch for a reaction if we get there this week

Semiconductors Setting Up

I think the semi’s will be key over the next couple weeks to see if we get the typical seasonal rally before rolling and likely dragging the Nasdaq down with it.

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The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year, over 400% return in 3 trading days.

The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year, over 400% return in 3 trading days.

How did I find it before the move? I'm going to share a repeatable strategy I use to find these type of setups.

Buffet has talked many times about how the market is a game of patience where you only have to swing when you want to. A keep piece of this is impulse control, there is no reason to chase trades on a daily basis but instead of embrace JOMO (Joy on Missing Out) and reject FOMO (Fear on Missing Out). Fear is not our friend, I prefer joy myself

Most of my best trades come when I see some type of headline or reading hit where a stock is rapidly falling based off of some event or random news of the day. What I like to do when I see this is review the technicals first. What is the 4 hour, daily and weekly RSI reading, is it above or below key weekly or daily moving averages, and has it filled or near any gaps?

Next, I review the seasonality over the next few weeks and months for the current year overall and the current year of the presidential cycle (Midterm Year this year as an example).

Follow that up and review any large prints that might have hit in recently to see if any levels stand out. You can see the 2nd largest print came in on 6/26, adding to the thesis that this could be a good trade here.

Lastly, review any catalyst upcoming.

After reviewing that it should paint a very clear picture on if this is a compelling setup or not. Apple checked many boxes, RSI extended to downside, near key support, large print in the tape, a gap fill just below, and incredibly strong seasonality.

The trade shared on 6/29 with premium members was APPL 7/24 295C’s at 2.95

Those calls ended Thursday 7/2 at 17.30 a contract, nearly a 500% gain in 3 days.

This is a repeatable trade setup that anyone can use. It just takes a bit of patience and a process that works for your own trading style.

Hope you enjoyed. Cheers 🍻

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Last week saw significant weakness in tech and semi’s with probably one of the best discussions of the year as Palantir’s Alex Karp expressed a compelling argument for how CEO’s are currently viewing the offerings of Anthropic and OpenAI. I’m seeing important levels hit on key sectors and several technicals aligning with seasonality to create some nice summer setups. However, there is definitely a sense of change coming, maybe some trouble in paradise around the corner.

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How To Find Fat Pitch Setups

The Apple trade to start off Q3 was one of the best ones of the year. How did I find out before hand? Buffet has talked many times about how the market is a game of patience where you only have to swing when you want to. A keep piece of this is impulse control, there is no reason to chase trades on a daily basis but instead of embrace JOMO (Joy on Missing Out) and reject FOMO (Fear on Missing Out). Fear is not our friend, I prefer joy myself

Most of my best trades come when I see some type of headline or reading hit where a stock is rapidly falling based off of some event or random news of the day. What I like to do when I see this is review the technicals first. What is the daily and weekly RSI reading, is it above or below key weekly or daily moving averages, and has it filled or near any gaps. Next, I review the seasonality over the next few weeks and months for the current year overall and the current year of the presidential cycle (Midterm Year this year as an example). Follow that up and review any large prints that might have hit in Volume Leaders over the past quarter to see if any levels stand out.

Lastly, review any catalyst upcoming.

After reviewing that it should paint a very clear picture on if this is a compelling setup or not. Apple checked many boxes, RSI extended to downside, near key support, a gap fill just below, and incredibly strong seasonality.

The trade shared on 6/29 with premium members was APPL 7/24 295C’s at 2.95

Those calls ended Thursday 7/2 at 17.30 a contract, nearly a 500% gain in 3 days.

This is a repeatable trade setup that anyone can use.

It just takes a bit of patience and a process that works for your own trading style.

Feel free to join where we search for these setups each week

Is Energy Bottoming?

I’m seeing lots of calls for energy to bottom based off its recent weakness combined with the geopolitical risk of Iran. It’s a solid thesis, I get it. But, is now the time to try and play that move?

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Includes

• Seasonality Cheat Sheets

• Mid Term Year Playbook

• Quarterly Market Outlooks

• SpaceX Roadmap

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• And lots more including company deep dives, dark pool data, and my own trading journal navigating the greatest soap opera on earth (The Market)

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Lets dive in…..

How Did Q2 Outlook Perform?

I had Claude run an analysis and grade the Q2 Trade Idea’s, I did this for Q1 as well and was released in the prior quarterly write up. I will keep doing this throughout each quarterly paper.

Claude gave an A-, I would call it a C+. Execution wasn’t to my expectation and so this time around I will be sharing a Q3 Portfolio and Strategy for each Month of the quarter.

The Midterm Year Playbook: Putting the Odds in Your Favor

“The smallest historical drawdown has been -7.4%, while the largest was -41.8%. What determines which scenario plays out? Leverage, sentiment, and earnings growth. Right now, we’re sitting with accelerating leverage, sentiment that’s elevated but not panicked, and a market that’s priced for perfection.” - Quote from the Q1 Outlook

“Every major economy on earth wants crude lower, geopolitical premiums don’t stay bid forever” - Quote from the Q2 Outlook

Q3 Seasonality

Each month has its own flavor but the quarter as a whole is the most volatile of the year. Later on in the write up you will find the cheat sheet guide for each month.

Volatility Seasons kicks off in Q3 and with it includes a market where staying nimble will be key and remembering the north star can be very profitable. (November buying Window)

1H July Window - One reason I wanted to add the monthly breakdowns of the quarter is because of the chart above. There is strong reason to believe the 1st half of July is generally bullish, “Since 2010, this seasonal period has been negative only once for the indices.”

Always key to remember there are no guarantees in the market. Many of these seasonal edges are getting more widespread attention, leaving room for Wallstreet to shift this often strong window into a trap. Speaking of traps…

The Weakest Window of The Year

For a Mid Term Year, this is the one quarter where being a tad more cautious has the potential to pay off. You can see in the chart where Q4 is usually the risk- on setup.

My quarterly write ups likely have created the most value of any of my releases. From alpha generating seasonal setups to navigating the latest dark pool prints, and research on some of the best under the radar names out there, I try to really create exceptional value for my subscribers.

This write up even includes a Cheat Sheet for Q3 Seasonals Specifically for each month, each week. If you haven’t tried out the premium access, not a bad time to take it for spin.

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My Core Thesis for Q3 2026:

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First of all, let me start by saying if you aren’t leveraging the alpha generated on that platform cannot be understated. Incredibly useful tool for my own trade and investment idea’s. Now Let’s Dive In.

Massive Dark Pools

The QQQ’s saw the 2nd Largest Trade Cluster (All Time) today.

DIA - The Dow saw the #1 Print Hit the Tape

SNDK - Sandisk 2x Levered ETF Gets a #1 Print (SNXX)

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What Does All This Mean?

My lean has been that we see some weakness this week before the market rallies in the 1st Half of July. These prints strengthen my thesis of short term weakness. Will need to see how things play out over the next few days to see if that July rally shows up.

Want to see if that 7330 level is tagged and how the market reacts from there. A flush under there could setup a lower low below 7260 level. Would be surprising to see in July but with this market, maybe it comes fast.

KOSPI - Korea is beyond extended on longer time frames.

(Full Disclosure, I am currently short via 3x ETF KORU)

The memory euphoria begins and ends in Korea. Watching for

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One reason the dip was bought last week was because of the pinning associated with Opex Week, especially triple or quad witching events.

June specifically is historically weak following these expirations.

I have built a series of tool’s, one of them being a library of all documented seasonals and market mechanics that have major impacts on the market. While I have been leveraging this data for years, I wanted to share a cheat sheet with you all to help navigate markets in the future.

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SPX - Key Levels

Want to watch 7315, 7250, and 7150 as support levels. I think the dip is bought as July is often very strong with a target of 7700 to start, but there are other key signals I am watching giving me pause that new highs are a guarantee. Will review here shortly.

If you have been on the fence for joining the premium sub, the next phase of this market I think will be challenging and we are only warming up for the insights shared on how to navigate it.

Consider joining for all the latest updates each week, the summer special is still going.

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Dow Jones Seasonality

When viewing the seasonality for the Dow during Mid Term Year's you can see one

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Seasonality - Bluekurtic has a great chart showing weakness around this time year “Since 2000, week after Juneteenth has been positive just 27% of the time for the S&P 500 and 37% for the Nasdaq 100”

Index’s - watch for a gap fill on SPY around 742 as a potential area to swing for new highs. I am not a fan of going long the market here but I do think there is a chance we squeeze higher during July. The overall market to me is showing late cycle signals and if semi’s top it will be hard to continue to grind the index’s higher.

Semiconductors - if the market leader tops, what does that mean for the market?

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Gold setup is very strong with FOMC as potential last hurdle this week

OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Energy setup is not favorable here

SEASONALITY - Seasonality for Energy is also quite weak with July having one of the worse hit rates for upside. FOMC and Future’s roll this week likely creates more volatility than usual for the day to day seasonality map.

SIGNAL OF THE WEEK - Seasonal Warning: Weakest Part of June Is Still Ahead

• June 14–27 is historically one of the weakest periods of the year for stocks.

• Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing often leads to:

  • Profit-taking in winners.

  • Rotation into laggards.

  • Lower trading volumes.

• Historically, avoiding only:

  • The second half of June, and

  • The second half of September
    has significantly improved returns versus remaining fully invested during those periods.

Hope you enjoyed the read, if you aren’t a paid subscriber, consider joining the team as I give out company deep dives, discord access to my own trading journal, overall market analysis, and take request for data and insights on your favorite companies, cheers! (Current offer is literally <$16 a month)

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Each week we release the latest readings and seasonality across the market to subscribers, if you enjoy these reports a like, share, or positive review is always appreciated.

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Trimble tumbles

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OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Humana overbought on RSI but signal not bearish

SEASONALITY - To Celebrate reaching a top riser in Substack, here is my Index Seasonality Cheat Sheet, thank you for all the support.

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What’s actually printing

Strip the Mars poetry and here’s the deal that prices after the close on June 11 and trades June 12 on Nasdaq as SPCX:

• $135/share, fixed. No range, no bookbuild dance — they handed the market a number and walked. ~556M shares, ~$75B raised, ~$1.75T target cap. Largest IPO ever, ~2.5× Aramco.

• 30% reserved for retail. Three-plus times the normal mega-cap allocation. That’s not generosity; that’s the tell. A serious institution doesn’t need to sell 30% to the crowd unless the crowd is the buyer the math requires.

• ~3% public float. A ~$1.75T company with a tradable base of roughly $45–100B. Remember that number — it’s the whole game.

• The fundamentals they’d rather you skip: Q1’26 net loss $4.28B, accumulated deficit $41.3B, AI burning ~$2.5B a quarter. Only the connectivity (Starlink) segment makes money. Space launch revenue actually fell year-on-year.

Valuation: Priced for Mars

At $1.75T on ~$18.7B trailing revenue, SPCX is asking for ~94× sales. The richest name in the entire trillion-dollar club, Broadcom, trades at ~19×. Nvidia — growing 85% — trades at ~14×. The only public comp in the same zip code is Palantir near ~70×, and Palantir is GAAP-profitable.

You don’t get to ~94× on a 9–15% organic grower with a $4B quarterly loss through DCF. You get there through a story — multiplanetary TAM, asteroid mining, data centers in orbit — and a buyer who isn’t pricing the next four quarters. That buyer is retail and, mechanically, your QQQ.

The growth is decelerating into the listing

This is the part the S-1 glosses: revenue growth has gone from +63% → +32%, and the headline +44–60% for 2026E is reverse-engineered from the valuation, not guided by the company. Strip the xAI consolidation and the core grew single digits. You’re paying a 6× revenue acceleration premium for a deceleration.

The Engine: Forced buying meets a garden hose

Here’s why this isn’t a normal expensive IPO. Index providers rewrote the rules to jam SPCX into benchmarks at a phantom weight, forcing passive funds to buy a stock with almost no float.

The big June 5 change: S&P Dow Jones refused to fast-track it — reaffirming 12-month seasoning, profitability, and float requirements. That single decision struck ~$14B of forced buying that the bulls were counting on. No S&P 500 inclusion until at least a year out, and only if it’s profitable. That December “SPX inclusion” everyone penciled in? Off the calendar.

What’s still live: Nasdaq’s “Fast Entry” rule survives — NDX in ~15 trading days (~July 6), free-float minimum eliminated, and a float multiplier up to 3–5× that weights SPCX as if it were a ~$400B+ free-float stock. Conservative estimate: ~$7–12B of single-day NDX-tracker buying, plus CRSP/TMI (~Jun 18) and Russell/MSCI (~Jun 26). As one widely-shared note put it, you’re forcing a firehose of mega-cap capital through a garden hose of actual liquidity.

That’s the asymmetry nobody frames correctly: low float + mechanical demand cuts both ways. Near-term it’s a squeeze risk up. The supply problem is real — but it shows up later, on the lock-up calendar, not on day one.

The Supply Clock: The Drip becomes a Flood

Forget the clean 180-day cliff. SpaceX built a rolling unlock that lets insiders use the crowd as exit liquidity in tranches:

• ~20% of eligible insider shares after Q2 earnings (~August) — +10% more if SPCX holds +30% over $135 (≈$175.50) for 5 of 10 days first. Read that twice: a strong squeeze triggers more supply. It’s self-limiting by design.

• 7% each at days 70 / 90 / 105 / 120 / 135 — a steady September–October drip.

• +28% after Q3 earnings (~November).

• Remainder at 180 days (mid-December). Musk himself: locked 366 days, no early release.

So the tape’s character flips around late August: the forced bid is spent, and the supply faucet opens and never fully closes into year-end.

What IPOs Actually Do

Pull the tape on 18 of the most important IPOs in modern market history — Ford to Arm — and the pattern is uncomfortable for anyone planning to buy SPCX at the open. The average name lost −33.6% from its IPO price to its 12-month trough; the median, −33.0%. A roughly one-third drawdown isn’t the tail outcome here. It’s the base case.

And being right on the company didn’t save you. Apple fell −50% in its first year. Amazon −29%. Meta −54%. Tesla −34%. Every one of them became a trillion-dollar story — and every one handed early buyers a brutal year first. The names that didn’t draw down meaningfully are few and regime-specific (Google −0.4%, Microsoft −7%); the ones that got cut in half or worse — Rivian −79%, Uber −64%, Meta −54%, Snap −52% — read like a roll call of exactly what SPCX is: richly valued, heavily hyped, and carrying a wall of locked stock waiting to hit the tape.

• The typical mega-IPO is down ~3% in week one and underwater at a year. The average is a lie told by a handful of Amazons, Googles, and Ciscos.

The timing is the part that matters most for this trade. The average 3-month max loss is just −18.8% — but the 12-month figure is nearly double at −33.6%. The damage doesn’t land at the open. It compounds over the following two to three quarters, which is precisely when staggered lock-ups expire and insider supply floods the market. That’s not coincidence; it’s the mechanism. For SPCX, the mechanism is already on the calendar: five rolling unlock tranches and a full 180-day cliff that collides with December’s index reconstitution.

None of this says SpaceX is a bad company. It says the IPO trade and the company are two different things. History says the first year is a drawdown machine, the worst of it arrives on the lock-up schedule, and the right side of this is positioning for the supply — not chasing the listing.

If you aren’t a paid subscriber, consider joining the team as I give out company deep dives, discord access to my own trading journal, overall market analysis, and take request for data and insights on your favorite companies, cheers!

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How to Trade It: Four Windows, Four Games

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Market was bloody to end the week, but we ended on a high note as last weeks paper paid dividends.

I’ll have the signal report out soon but wanted to go ahead and get a plan out for tomorrow and review what I’m seeing here. Back to ending on a high note….

SOXS lotto’s ran from .53 to 2.00

Micron, MRVL and SNDK shorts ran double digits (covered too early)

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Med Tech Names Squeeze

Not a bad way to to end the week, now lets dive in on how to navigate the volatility tomorrow and likely the rest of the week.

Index Levels

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A week that printed fresh record highs midweek reversed hard as chips cracked, Seoul tripped a circuit breaker, and Treasuries sold off. With payrolls running hot and inflation drifting away from target, does next week's CPI force the higher-for-longer trade back to center stage — right as the largest IPO in history hits the tape?

The Week That Was

It started euphoric and ended defensive. Equities pushed to new records into midweek before a chip-led reversal swept the major averages lower and snapped volatility out of its springtime calm. I wrote about this setup on Tuesday for those who missed it.

May payrolls came in at 172K against an ~80K consensus — more than double expectations, with several firms flagging World Cup-related hiring (the tournament opens June 11). A blowout jobs number in a higher-for-longer regime is a tightening, not a tailwind, and it reignited the rate-cut-versus-rate-hike debate hours before the weekend. My lean is that this is short lived from a labor perspective due to world cup seasonality and much of the damage caused in the market was more driven by stretched technicals.

Semis & AI capex

The spark was Broadcom’s after-hours print: management held its full-year AI outlook roughly flat and guided next quarter a touch below the Street’s elevated bar. After a torrid run, that was enough to flip sentiment — chips led a broad tech selloff into Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s worst session in over a year, with memory and equipment names hit hardest. The debate has shifted from whether AI capex is growing to whether the estimates got too high.

Korea & memory

The same trade unwound harder overseas. The KOSPI tripped a circuit breaker after a blistering multi-month run, led lower by SK Hynix and Samsung — the two names that dominate the index’s market cap and the bulk of its year-to-date gains. Record margin balances and a wave of leveraged single-stock ETFs amplified the move. With the Bank of Korea widely expected to hike in July, the memory cycle remains the cleanest global read on the AI-hardware trade.

Rates & the dollar

The jobs surprise sent Treasuries lower across the curve, pushing the long end back above the 5% line and the dollar to its firmest level since the spring. “Good news is bad news” is back: every strong data point now reads as a reason for the Fed to stay put — or worse.

Flow

Watch the leverage at the edges. MicroStrategy disclosed its first bitcoin sale in roughly 41 months — a symbolic crack in the “never sell” posture — and bitcoin drifted lower on the week as the reflexivity debate around corporate crypto treasuries resurfaced.

The Week Ahead

A loaded calendar, and all of it lands inside the pre-FOMC blackout — the June 16–17 meeting is Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, complete with fresh dots. No Fed speakers to lean on; the data and the deals carry the tape.

Data (8:30 a.m. ET)

• Wed, Jun 10 — CPI (May). The marquee. April headline ran at a three-year high; nowcasts point to a further pickup near 4.2% y/y — roughly double the Fed’s 2% target. Core and the energy pass-through from the Hormuz disruption are the whole game.

• Thu, Jun 11 — PPI (May) + weekly jobless claims.

• Tue, Jun 9 — International trade (April), wholesale trade. Retail sales and PCE fall the following week.

  Central banks

  • FOMC blackout into the June 16–17 decision; futures lean toward a hold, but the market has been adding to the odds of a hike later in the year.

  • Bank of Korea — no meeting this week; next decision mid-July, with a hike widely expected.

  Earnings

  • Wed, Jun 10 (after close) — Oracle (ORCL), Q4 FY26. The cleanest AI-capex read of the week — cloud bookings and OCI backlog land the same day as CPI. Oracle tends to move sharply on results.

  IPOs / lock-ups

  • Thu, Jun 11 — SpaceX (SPCX) prices; Fri, Jun 12 — lists on Nasdaq.

    • A record-size offering (~$75B raise, ~$1.75T valuation, ~30% retail allocation) — the largest IPO in history — debuting into a tape that just saw its worst chip session in over a year. A live gauge of risk appetite.

  Geopolitical

  • Strait of Hormuz / Iran — the namesake thread stays hot. The strait has been effectively shut since late February and the ceasefire remains fragile (fresh missile exchanges, a rejected truce track). Oil is elevated and headline-driven — the swing factor under the CPI path.

  • World Cup opens in the U.S. (Thu, Jun 11) — a services/demand tailwind already visible in payrolls.

Seasonality

2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, and that cycle carries one of the more durable seasonal patterns on the board. Historically the S&P 500 drags in the 12 months into midterms — averaging well below its long-run norm — then posts above-average gains in the 12 months after.

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Trading Wisdom of the Week

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Livermore’s line is the antidote to a week like this. After a sharp reversal the temptation is to do something — chase the bounce, flip short, average the dip — but the traders who compound aren’t the busiest; they’re the ones who can sit on a position (or in cash) without itching to act. With CPI, Oracle, and the largest IPO in history all landing within a few days, the edge isn’t clever pre-positioning — it’s the patience to let the catalysts resolve and to size up only when the setup is obvious. In a tape driven by leverage and emotion, doing nothing is often the highest-conviction trade.

What to Watch

• CPI - A hot print (at/above the ~4.2% consensus, firm core) pushes the higher-for-longer trade and raises the odds the Fed’s next move is a hike — pressure on long-duration growth and rate-sensitive names. A cool print is the relief valve: with chips and Korea freshly washed out, it could fund a sharp oversold bounce into the SpaceX listing.

• Oracle, same night, is the AI tell. After Broadcom’s guide, the market wants confirmation the data-center buildout is still accelerating — or another reason to question the estimates.

• Cross-asset markers. The 30-year holding (or losing) the 5% line and the direction of the dollar will frame risk appetite all week; the prior record highs now sit overhead as resistance, with the spring breakout zone the first support shelf below. Oil and any Hormuz headlines remain the wildcard for the inflation path.

• What would shift the narrative. A soft May CPI that pulls the long end back under 5% and an upbeat Oracle could re-ignite the AI bid and squeeze a heavily de-risked tape; conversely, a hot CPI plus a cautious Oracle would hand the bears continuation. A genuine Hormuz reopening (oil easing) would cool the inflation impulse through the back door.

Hope you enjoyed the read, if you aren’t a paid subscriber, consider joining the team as I give out company deep dives, discord access to my own trading journal, overall market analysis, and take request for data and insights on your favorite companies, cheers!

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Every quarter, biotech-only hedge funds — the ones that live and die by clinical readouts — quietly tell you what they think will work over the next 24 months. You just have to read 13Fs and resist the temptation to chase whatever oncology name is trending on FinTwit.

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This week, the signal is loud and the name is underrated outside the specialist community: Kymera Therapeutics (NASDAQ: KYMR). According to Stifel’s May 2026 Biotech Buyside Study, KYMR is the #1 biopharma holding at BVF Partners — one of the most disciplined dedicated biotech funds in the country. Baker Bros, Avoro, and BVF together own more than 21M shares — over $1.8B of position value at current prices, and that’s before we count generalists like Fidelity stacking another $974M.

Risk signal worth flagging: Perceptive Advisors shows -100% QoQ — they fully exited. Perceptive runs a more event-driven book than Baker/Avoro/BVF, so this is best read as profit-taking rather than a thesis change

Shares closed $74.13 on Friday and recently bounced off the 200D (near 71.69), putting the market cap at $6.10B. The 52-week range is $36.65 to $103, so the stock is still ~28% below its highs despite a string of positive clinical reads. Wall Street’s 18 covering analysts are 100% bullish with an average price target of $120.72 — implying 62.8% upside — and the spread runs from $100 low to $140 high.

What Kymera actually does

Kymera is the leading independent pure-play in targeted protein degradation — small molecules that bind a disease-driving protein and physically destroy it via the body’s own ubiquitin-proteasome system. Think of it as a heat-seeking missile that removes pathologic proteins instead of just inhibiting them.

The headline asset is KT-621, an oral degrader of STAT6 — the master transcription factor downstream of IL-4 and IL-13 signaling. Translation: if it works, it does what Dupixent (Dupilumab) does — Sanofi/Regeneron’s $13B+ blockbuster injectable for atopic dermatitis and asthma — but as a daily pill.

The Phase 1b BroADen readout in December 2025 delivered the kind of data biotech bulls dream about:

• 98% blood STAT6 degradation, 94% skin degradation, 74% TARC reduction in 22 moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis patients

• Clean safety, well tolerated

• FDA Fast Track designation already in hand for AD

Two pivotal Phase 2b trials are now enrolling:

• BROADEN2 (Phase 2b atopic dermatitis): dosing initiated Nov 2025, topline mid-2027

• BREADTH (Phase 2b eosinophilic asthma): dosing initiated 2026, topline late-2027

The investment question is no longer “does STAT6 degradation translate to clinical efficacy” — Phase 1b answered that. The question is “can it match a biologic in a placebo-controlled Phase 2b on real efficacy endpoints?”

If yes, the Total Addressable Market is the entire IL-4/IL-13 biologic franchise — and an oral pill at a fraction of the price destroys the injectable’s moat overnight.

The next 12 months — three catalysts that move the stock

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1. Q3 2026 · KT-621 long-term extension data (NEAREST-TERM MOVER). A continuation of the Phase 1b BroADen open-label extension. The bar is durability — confirming that >90% STAT6 degradation holds with chronic dosing and that the clean safety profile carries. Not a re-rate event by itself, but a confidence builder ahead of #2.

2. Q1 2027 · BROADEN2 interim (HIGHEST MAGNITUDE). First Phase 2b efficacy and dose-response signal in moderate-to-severe AD. This is the de-risking event for the entire oral-biologic franchise. A clean interim gates pivotal design, partnering optionality, and likely triggers a step-change in consensus PT distribution. The current $100–$140 PT range will collapse upward or downward off this print.

3. Mid-2027 → Late-2027 · BROADEN2 topline + BREADTH asthma topline (FRANCHISE-DEFINING). Two oral-biologic Phase 2b reads in six months. This is the largest fundamental re-rate window of the decade for KYMR. Successful reads turn KT-621 into a partner-able / pre-commercial asset; failed reads reset the equity story to the rest of the degrader pipeline (which is real, but not what the multiple is built on).

Financials — does the balance sheet survive to the catalyst?

• Revenue: $34.4M (Sanofi collaboration milestones + research funding)

• R&D: $98.2M

• Operating loss: -$84.2M

• Net loss: -$69.2M

• Cash: $144.1M

• Short-term investments: $506.8M

• Total liquidity: $651M

• Operating cash burn (Q1): -$88.8M → annualized burn $355M

• Cash runway: 1.8 years (conservative — assumes zero new collaboration revenue and ignores any milestone earn-outs from Sanofi)

Read carefully: 1.8 years of runway from March 31, 2026 puts the cash-out date squarely past BROADEN2 interim (Q1 2027) and right up against BROADEN2 topline (mid-2027). Management has multiple financing optionality windows — a positive Q1 ‘27 interim is almost certainly the trigger for an opportunistic raise at a much higher price.

This is a healthy balance sheet for a Phase 2b biotech with a pipeline that has already de-risked Phase 1.

Valuation framing

At $6.1B market cap and ~$651M cash, enterprise value is roughly $5.5B. For comparison, the IL-4/IL-13 franchise (Dupixent) does well over $13B in annual sales today. If KT-621 captures even a low single-digit share of that franchise as an oral alternative — and that’s before you assign credit to the rest of Kymera’s degrader pipeline — the current EV looks rational, not stretched.

The 18-analyst average target of $120.72 (high $140, low $100) implies the Street is already pricing in a partial probability of Phase 2b success. The upside case re-rates further on interim data; the downside case is gated by balance sheet, not by an immediate cash crunch.

How I’m thinking about it

The setup I want for a binary biotech is:

• Asset with mechanistic validation already on the board — Phase 1b STAT6 degradation: checked

• Multiple shots on goal at the same target — BROADEN2 + BREADTH = two Phase 2b reads, six months apart

• Dedicated biotech HFs holding firm at near-peak position sizes — Baker, Avoro, BVF all unchanged at multi-hundred-million-dollar positions

• Balance sheet survives to the catalyst with optionality to raise from strength — 1.8 years runway, $651M

• Realistic upside-to-downside skew — 62.8% to consensus PT, with high end implying ~89% upside

• Watch item: Perceptive’s full exit. Worth tracking next 13F to see if Baker/Avoro/BVF stay put.

That’s a clean setup. Not without risk — biotech Phase 2b interims have a 30–40% failure rate historically — but it’s the kind of setup specialist money is built to underwrite.

KYMR sits with a defined plan: scale risk into the Q3 2026 long-term extension data, with the real position size decision gated by the Q1 2027 BROADEN2 interim print

Hope you enjoyed the read, if you aren’t a paid subscriber, consider joining the team as I give out company deep dives, overall market analysis, and take request all day for data and insights on your favorite companies, cheers!

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That Viking Therapeutics is a takeout candidate isn’t controversial. VK2735 is arguably the most advanced obesity asset still sitting outside Big Pharma’s walls — a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist in both subcutaneous and oral form, with the subcutaneous program fully enrolled in two Phase 3 trials. At a market cap near $3.6B and a cash balance around $600M, it’s small enough to swallow and dangerous enough that the incumbents can’t ignore it. The interesting question isn’t whether a deal is plausible. It’s whether one lands in 2026 specifically — and there the picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

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The market is pricing a real, but not dominant, probability. Prediction markets put the odds of an acquisition before 2027 around 33%, with enough volume behind the contract to take it semi-seriously. The options chain rhymes with that: open interest is heavily call-skewed (roughly 4:1 calls over puts), with meaningful long-dated call positioning out at the January 2027 expiry — i.e., money parked past the pivotal data window. That’s consistent with traders underwriting an upside gap, whether from clean trial data or a bid. The caveat for anyone reading too much into implied vol: VKTX carries structurally rich vol anyway because of its binary clinical calendar, so you can’t cleanly separate “takeout premium” from “data premium.” Bullish positioning, yes. Confirmed deal signal, no.

The buyer bench is real but uneven:

• Pfizer — the most motivated name. It has been the most active obesity acquirer, is building out the Metsera platform, and has openly framed 2026 as a catalyst-rich, business-development-heavy year. A Phase 3-ready dual agonist slots directly into that strategy.

• Novo Nordisk — the defensive case. With share under pressure and soft guidance, a bid to protect the franchise is plausible, if not its preferred move.

• Eli Lilly — less urgent than it was. With its own once-daily oral pill now approved, the strategic need to buy an oral asset has softened, and antitrust optics around the category leader complicate the fit.

• Merck / Amgen — longer shots that round out the list.

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Here’s the tension that actually governs 2026. The pivotal VANQUISH readouts — the data that truly de-risks the asset — don’t arrive until the second half of 2027. So a disciplined acquirer has a clean reason to wait. The counter-argument, and the one bulls lean on, is that you don’t wait for the data if waiting means bidding against three rivals at a much higher price. Pre-empting a post-data auction is exactly how early biotech bids happen. Cutting the other way: Viking just brought on a chief commercial officer to prep a launch — a posture that reads as “willing to go it alone,” which only raises the number any suitor has to put on the table.

Bottom line: treat 2026 takeout as elevated, market-priced optionality — a ~38% tail against a hot obesity-M&A tape — not as a base case. The asset is desirable, the buyers are shopping, and the positioning leans bullish. But the cleanest value-inflection event is a 2027 story, and nothing in the current evidence rises above strategic logic and speculation. Own the optionality if you want it; don’t underwrite the deal as a foregone conclusion.

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The S&P 500 is quietly doing something remarkable. We’re now on the 9th consecutive up day — the longest streak since May 2025 — and sitting on the cusp of a 10th consecutive up week, a run not seen since 1985. Let that sink in for a moment. 1985.

Layer in the seasonality tailwind — summer months historically favor a slow drift higher with compressed volatility — and on the surface, the bull case looks clean. But clean surfaces have a way of hiding cracks, and the evidence continues to mount that we are hitting extremes across key sectors, sentiment, and positioning.

GS Prime data shows hedge fund gross leverage rose another +2.1pts this week to ~323% – a fresh 5-year high

I’ll be direct about something: fading the initial move in tech was a mistake. This run has been genuinely historic — we are in the midst of the strongest Q2 of a Mid-Term Year on record.

My process is built around leveraging data to add a cushion on top of my thesis, and this move was simply something the data couldn’t fully account for. Sometimes the market writes a chapter that doesn’t fit neatly into the playbook. That’s trading.

The saving grace? My highest-conviction setup — ServiceNow — is now up over 60% from the lows, with long-term LEAPs doubled. Partial mistakes offset by disciplined conviction plays. That’s the game.

So where do we go from here? Let’s cut through the noise and look at what the data is actually telling us — the extremes building under the surface, the sectors worth watching, and the best risk/reward setups I can identify right now.

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Tech: The Engine & The Risk

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Each week we release the latest readings and seasonality across the market to subscribers, if you enjoy these reports a like, share, or positive review is always appreciated.

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Medtronic with earnings tomorrow premarket and HCA showing signals on daily and weekly

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OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Blackberry

SEASONALITY - Volatility tends to tail off in the summer before peaking into October

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The signs of market extremes keep accumulating as a generational speculative run takes hold.

Risks and vulnerabilities are clearly building — but for now, the trend remains your friend. The speculative cycle runs until it doesn’t. May was another month where it did.

We are now entering June where we just saw the S&P continue its rally in May gaining over 5% with a sense of euphoria across the market. Some key thoughts going into next week

• Stretched valuations and positioning keeps me cautious with some historical readings hitting in key sectors

• June is filled with catalyst that could create some volatility but it likely remains subdued overall until August timeframe

• Semi’s are the market leader and are giving signals that the market is at an incredibly fragile point.

#1 Print in SOXX hit last week

A few interesting earnings reports this week including CRWD, PANW, MDT, and LULU.

June Seasonality — Mid-Term Years (1950–2025)

June has been one of the weakest months on the midterm-year calendar. Across all midterm Junes since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged -2.11%, finishing higher just 36.8% of the time — a poor risk/reward setup on its face.

But the path matters as much as the print. Stocks have historically held firm through the first week of the month, drifting modestly green before rolling over. The damage concentrates in the back half: the average price path erodes steadily from mid-month onward and tends to close near its lows. Early-June strength has been a trap more often than a trend.

The partisan split adds a wrinkle worth flagging.

Under Democratic presidents, midterm Junes have been brutal — averaging -3.11% with positive returns just 22% of the time.

Under Republican presidents, the month is far more benign: roughly -1.21% on average and a coin-flip 50% hit rate.

With 2026 sitting in the Republican-president bucket, the cleaner analog argues for chop and a mild downward drift rather than the deeper seasonal air pocket the headline number implies

Sentiment and Positioning

Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator has quickly bounced back to extreme bull readings and consumer confidence for higher stock prices hit the 2nd highest reading ever. This confirms some euphoria here.

Shiller PE Ratio continues to climb, only being topped by the Dot Com Bubble.

Yes we have low forward PE readings for certain leaders but these are cycles and the market will begin to price in peak earnings at some point for some of these players that are leading the market currently.

Market breadth remains healthy despite Friday’s softening.

Percentages of stocks above the 5/20/50/200-day all dipped Friday but held above the 50% line, and the 5-day rolling over faster than the 20-day reads as a likely selldown-then-bounce rather than a top.

Incoming chair Kevin Walsh was chosen because he wants to cut, leaning on trimmed-mean PCE (2.4%) over core (3.2%) and headline (3.5%) and an “AI is deflationary” argument, and is expected to push back against the bond market’s hike pricing.

The market is overstating how hawkish Kevin Warsh would be as a potential new Fed chair.

His first FOMC as chair comes June 17th and think sets up some interesting trades I’ll share later. But here’s a clue, with oil price action and Warsh following the lower inflation metrics, the argument for yields topping is already strong, add in the possibility of a bubble popping sometime over the next few years, there is a very strong setup based on previous market cycles. 👇

There are pockets of the market that complicate the argument for a pending top.

Small caps and software remain overlooked, under-owned, and cheaply valued relative to the megacap complex driving the index. That divergence matters. It tells you this is not a uniformly overheated market — it’s a top-heavy one, where the concentration risk is real and the opportunities for differentiated positioning still exist if you’re willing to look away from the headline index.

I’ll release the exact names and sectors I’m positioning into for paid subscribers on Tuesday.

If you have been on the fence, the next phase of this market I think will continue to be challenging and we are only warming up for the insights shared on how to navigate it. Consider joining for all the latest updates each week. Cheers.

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That’s it. No chart. No 47-tweet thread with a Linktree at the end. Just one line — and honestly? It’s right. Not because it’s some genius insight, but because it describes human behavior that hasn’t changed since the Dutch were out here trading tulip futures in 1637.

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Here’s what I want you to understand: these aren’t really rules about markets. They’re rules about people. Exchange hours, settlement systems, order flow — all of that evolves. But the thing that makes a parabola go vertical and then crater? Fear. Greed. The gut-punch of FOMO. The even worse feeling of being the last one holding the bag. That part of our wiring hasn’t changed, and it’s not going to.

I’ve lived and traded through enough cycles now to tell you — the rules that survive aren’t the flashy ones. They’re the ones with a mechanism behind them. A rule you can’t explain is a rule you’ll abandon the second the pressure is on. A rule you actually understand is one you’ll hold when your hands are shaking.

Let’s go through them.

1. Sell Parabolic Moves

Why it works: When a chart goes parabolic, what you’re really looking at is demand being pulled forward all at once — FOMO longs piling in, trapped shorts panic-covering, dealers hedging gamma exposure. All of them are structurally forced to buy. And forced buyers have one big problem: they run out. When the last one’s finally in, there’s no one left to sell to. Price doesn’t drift down — it falls through a trapdoor, because that bid was never real demand. It was mechanics. For longs you're trailing: a close back below the 8- or 9-day EMA typically ends a parabolic ride. I like to scale out into vertical strength rather than waiting for the top: sell thirds — first into the climax volume bar, more on the first lower high. If timed properly, there is great potential profit fading the lower high as well.

Jesse Livermore is the patron saint of this rule. He shorted the panic of 1907 and then bet against the 1929 crash so hard he reportedly walked away with around $100 million — something like $1.8 billion today — in a single autumn. His edge wasn’t a signal. It was patience. He said the money was made not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting.

The lesson underneath the lesson though? Livermore knew every rule in this post and still died broke in 1940 — having broken all of them. Knowing the rule and executing it are two completely different things. The market doesn’t grade you on what you know.

2. Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Why it works: At a real bottom, the marginal seller isn’t some rational actor — it’s somebody who has to sell. Margin calls. Redemptions. Pure psychological capitulation. They’ll hit any bid. That’s why the best prices in history printed when the news was the absolute worst. You’re not buying a great company at the bottom. You’re buying someone else’s panic at a discount.

The example shows each time since 1998 the VIX (Some call it the true fear index) was greater than 45 signaling true fear in the market. The forward returns average positive a month later in each occasion including the Dot Com Bust, Financial Crisis of 2008, and even Covid.

Everyone knows Buffett’s version: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” But I always liked the original. Baron Rothschild allegedly said the time to buy is “when there’s blood in the streets” — a line he earned by buying into the panic after Waterloo.

The cleanest execution of this principle I’ve ever studied belongs to John Templeton. In 1939 — Hitler is rolling through Poland, the world is on fire — a 26-year-old Templeton borrowed money and bought 100 shares of every stock on the NYSE under a dollar. 104 companies. Several already in bankruptcy. Maximum pessimism, maximum mispricing, maximum mechanical selling. He quadrupled his money. Seven words summed up his entire philosophy: “Buy at the point of maximum pessimism.”

3. Cut Losers, Let Winners Run

Why it works: This is pure math fighting human psychology — and psychology wins almost every time, which is why almost nobody actually does it. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. The math is brutal. But the pain of locking in a loss makes us hold losers hoping to “get back to even,” and the fear of giving back a gain makes us sell winners early. We do the exact opposite of what the math demands.

The math shows the CLE-LPR Strategy works well over time, although I think of this strategy more with swing trading versus investments where conviction is important.

For winners: trail with a rising MA (20-day for aggressive, 50-day for patient) and only exit on a clean break — let the trend, not nerves, make the call.

Paul Tudor Jones built his entire approach around the inverse instinct. He predicted the October 1987 crash and reportedly tripled his fund on Black Monday while the Dow dropped 22% in a single session. His mindset was unsentimental: losers average losers. He cut fast, ran winners, and treated capital preservation like the whole job — “Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

4. The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent

Why it works: Being right about direction and wrong about timing is, financially, the same as being wrong. If your thesis is correct but your margin runs out first, you lost. This is what kills bears specifically. Bearish theses are usually eventually right — valuations do mean-revert, bubbles do pop — but “eventually” can come 18 months and one blown-up account too late.

Wait for confirmation before fading — don't short a parabola while it's still going vertical. Use a trigger: a lower high, a break of the 20-day EMA, or a failed retest. Let the trend break before you bet against it.

Here is an example of how the Dot Com Bubble could have been played properly using this strategy

The line is attributed to Keynes, and even if that attribution is shaky, the truth isn’t. Keynes himself nearly blew up his own account in the 1920s being early and over-leveraged on currency bets. He survived, adapted, and became a great investor. But it almost ended before it started.

What All of This Is Actually About

Look at what every single one of these rules has in common. It’s not earnings. It’s not Fed language. It’s not some indicator crossover. It’s forced participants — buyers who have to buy and sellers who have to sell — and your job is to be on the other side of their desperation. The parabola is forced buyers exhausting themselves. The bottom is forced sellers capitulating. The crash is forced longs getting liquidated. Find the participant with no choice. Take the other side.

And then there’s the darker thread running through all of this: nearly every name in this post knew these rules cold and still got hurt the moment emotion overrode discipline. Livermore died broke. Druckenmiller torched $3 billion. Keynes nearly washed out. The rules themselves are simple enough to fit in a tweet and end with “Have a nice day.”

Following them when every nerve in your body is screaming the other way — that’s the whole game.

Markets don’t change. People don’t change. Which is exactly why a rule written for tulip traders still applies to whatever chart you’re watching right now.

Sell parabolic moves. Have a nice day.

Nothing in here is investment advice. This is market history and behavioral pattern recognition — the kind that’s survived a hundred years because the thing it describes never does.