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The S&P 500 is quietly doing something remarkable. We’re now on the 9th consecutive up day — the longest streak since May 2025 — and sitting on the cusp of a 10th consecutive up week, a run not seen since 1985. Let that sink in for a moment. 1985.

Layer in the seasonality tailwind — summer months historically favor a slow drift higher with compressed volatility — and on the surface, the bull case looks clean. But clean surfaces have a way of hiding cracks, and the evidence continues to mount that we are hitting extremes across key sectors, sentiment, and positioning.

GS Prime data shows hedge fund gross leverage rose another +2.1pts this week to ~323% – a fresh 5-year high

I’ll be direct about something: fading the initial move in tech was a mistake. This run has been genuinely historic — we are in the midst of the strongest Q2 of a Mid-Term Year on record.

My process is built around leveraging data to add a cushion on top of my thesis, and this move was simply something the data couldn’t fully account for. Sometimes the market writes a chapter that doesn’t fit neatly into the playbook. That’s trading.

The saving grace? My highest-conviction setup — ServiceNow — is now up over 60% from the lows, with long-term LEAPs doubled. Partial mistakes offset by disciplined conviction plays. That’s the game.

So where do we go from here? Let’s cut through the noise and look at what the data is actually telling us — the extremes building under the surface, the sectors worth watching, and the best risk/reward setups I can identify right now.

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Tech: The Engine & The Risk

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Each week we release the latest readings and seasonality across the market to subscribers, if you enjoy these reports a like, share, or positive review is always appreciated.

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Medtronic with earnings tomorrow premarket and HCA showing signals on daily and weekly

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OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Blackberry

SEASONALITY - Volatility tends to tail off in the summer before peaking into October

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The signs of market extremes keep accumulating as a generational speculative run takes hold.

Risks and vulnerabilities are clearly building — but for now, the trend remains your friend. The speculative cycle runs until it doesn’t. May was another month where it did.

We are now entering June where we just saw the S&P continue its rally in May gaining over 5% with a sense of euphoria across the market. Some key thoughts going into next week

• Stretched valuations and positioning keeps me cautious with some historical readings hitting in key sectors

• June is filled with catalyst that could create some volatility but it likely remains subdued overall until August timeframe

• Semi’s are the market leader and are giving signals that the market is at an incredibly fragile point.

#1 Print in SOXX hit last week

A few interesting earnings reports this week including CRWD, PANW, MDT, and LULU.

June Seasonality — Mid-Term Years (1950–2025)

June has been one of the weakest months on the midterm-year calendar. Across all midterm Junes since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged -2.11%, finishing higher just 36.8% of the time — a poor risk/reward setup on its face.

But the path matters as much as the print. Stocks have historically held firm through the first week of the month, drifting modestly green before rolling over. The damage concentrates in the back half: the average price path erodes steadily from mid-month onward and tends to close near its lows. Early-June strength has been a trap more often than a trend.

The partisan split adds a wrinkle worth flagging.

Under Democratic presidents, midterm Junes have been brutal — averaging -3.11% with positive returns just 22% of the time.

Under Republican presidents, the month is far more benign: roughly -1.21% on average and a coin-flip 50% hit rate.

With 2026 sitting in the Republican-president bucket, the cleaner analog argues for chop and a mild downward drift rather than the deeper seasonal air pocket the headline number implies

Sentiment and Positioning

Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator has quickly bounced back to extreme bull readings and consumer confidence for higher stock prices hit the 2nd highest reading ever. This confirms some euphoria here.

Shiller PE Ratio continues to climb, only being topped by the Dot Com Bubble.

Yes we have low forward PE readings for certain leaders but these are cycles and the market will begin to price in peak earnings at some point for some of these players that are leading the market currently.

Market breadth remains healthy despite Friday’s softening.

Percentages of stocks above the 5/20/50/200-day all dipped Friday but held above the 50% line, and the 5-day rolling over faster than the 20-day reads as a likely selldown-then-bounce rather than a top.

Incoming chair Kevin Walsh was chosen because he wants to cut, leaning on trimmed-mean PCE (2.4%) over core (3.2%) and headline (3.5%) and an “AI is deflationary” argument, and is expected to push back against the bond market’s hike pricing.

The market is overstating how hawkish Kevin Warsh would be as a potential new Fed chair.

His first FOMC as chair comes June 17th and think sets up some interesting trades I’ll share later. But here’s a clue, with oil price action and Warsh following the lower inflation metrics, the argument for yields topping is already strong, add in the possibility of a bubble popping sometime over the next few years, there is a very strong setup based on previous market cycles. 👇

There are pockets of the market that complicate the argument for a pending top.

Small caps and software remain overlooked, under-owned, and cheaply valued relative to the megacap complex driving the index. That divergence matters. It tells you this is not a uniformly overheated market — it’s a top-heavy one, where the concentration risk is real and the opportunities for differentiated positioning still exist if you’re willing to look away from the headline index.

I’ll release the exact names and sectors I’m positioning into for paid subscribers on Tuesday.

If you have been on the fence, the next phase of this market I think will continue to be challenging and we are only warming up for the insights shared on how to navigate it. Consider joining for all the latest updates each week. Cheers.

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That’s it. No chart. No 47-tweet thread with a Linktree at the end. Just one line — and honestly? It’s right. Not because it’s some genius insight, but because it describes human behavior that hasn’t changed since the Dutch were out here trading tulip futures in 1637.

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Here’s what I want you to understand: these aren’t really rules about markets. They’re rules about people. Exchange hours, settlement systems, order flow — all of that evolves. But the thing that makes a parabola go vertical and then crater? Fear. Greed. The gut-punch of FOMO. The even worse feeling of being the last one holding the bag. That part of our wiring hasn’t changed, and it’s not going to.

I’ve lived and traded through enough cycles now to tell you — the rules that survive aren’t the flashy ones. They’re the ones with a mechanism behind them. A rule you can’t explain is a rule you’ll abandon the second the pressure is on. A rule you actually understand is one you’ll hold when your hands are shaking.

Let’s go through them.

1. Sell Parabolic Moves

Why it works: When a chart goes parabolic, what you’re really looking at is demand being pulled forward all at once — FOMO longs piling in, trapped shorts panic-covering, dealers hedging gamma exposure. All of them are structurally forced to buy. And forced buyers have one big problem: they run out. When the last one’s finally in, there’s no one left to sell to. Price doesn’t drift down — it falls through a trapdoor, because that bid was never real demand. It was mechanics. For longs you're trailing: a close back below the 8- or 9-day EMA typically ends a parabolic ride. I like to scale out into vertical strength rather than waiting for the top: sell thirds — first into the climax volume bar, more on the first lower high. If timed properly, there is great potential profit fading the lower high as well.

Jesse Livermore is the patron saint of this rule. He shorted the panic of 1907 and then bet against the 1929 crash so hard he reportedly walked away with around $100 million — something like $1.8 billion today — in a single autumn. His edge wasn’t a signal. It was patience. He said the money was made not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting.

The lesson underneath the lesson though? Livermore knew every rule in this post and still died broke in 1940 — having broken all of them. Knowing the rule and executing it are two completely different things. The market doesn’t grade you on what you know.

2. Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Why it works: At a real bottom, the marginal seller isn’t some rational actor — it’s somebody who has to sell. Margin calls. Redemptions. Pure psychological capitulation. They’ll hit any bid. That’s why the best prices in history printed when the news was the absolute worst. You’re not buying a great company at the bottom. You’re buying someone else’s panic at a discount.

The example shows each time since 1998 the VIX (Some call it the true fear index) was greater than 45 signaling true fear in the market. The forward returns average positive a month later in each occasion including the Dot Com Bust, Financial Crisis of 2008, and even Covid.

Everyone knows Buffett’s version: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” But I always liked the original. Baron Rothschild allegedly said the time to buy is “when there’s blood in the streets” — a line he earned by buying into the panic after Waterloo.

The cleanest execution of this principle I’ve ever studied belongs to John Templeton. In 1939 — Hitler is rolling through Poland, the world is on fire — a 26-year-old Templeton borrowed money and bought 100 shares of every stock on the NYSE under a dollar. 104 companies. Several already in bankruptcy. Maximum pessimism, maximum mispricing, maximum mechanical selling. He quadrupled his money. Seven words summed up his entire philosophy: “Buy at the point of maximum pessimism.”

3. Cut Losers, Let Winners Run

Why it works: This is pure math fighting human psychology — and psychology wins almost every time, which is why almost nobody actually does it. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. The math is brutal. But the pain of locking in a loss makes us hold losers hoping to “get back to even,” and the fear of giving back a gain makes us sell winners early. We do the exact opposite of what the math demands.

The math shows the CLE-LPR Strategy works well over time, although I think of this strategy more with swing trading versus investments where conviction is important.

For winners: trail with a rising MA (20-day for aggressive, 50-day for patient) and only exit on a clean break — let the trend, not nerves, make the call.

Paul Tudor Jones built his entire approach around the inverse instinct. He predicted the October 1987 crash and reportedly tripled his fund on Black Monday while the Dow dropped 22% in a single session. His mindset was unsentimental: losers average losers. He cut fast, ran winners, and treated capital preservation like the whole job — “Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

4. The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent

Why it works: Being right about direction and wrong about timing is, financially, the same as being wrong. If your thesis is correct but your margin runs out first, you lost. This is what kills bears specifically. Bearish theses are usually eventually right — valuations do mean-revert, bubbles do pop — but “eventually” can come 18 months and one blown-up account too late.

Wait for confirmation before fading — don't short a parabola while it's still going vertical. Use a trigger: a lower high, a break of the 20-day EMA, or a failed retest. Let the trend break before you bet against it.

Here is an example of how the Dot Com Bubble could have been played properly using this strategy

The line is attributed to Keynes, and even if that attribution is shaky, the truth isn’t. Keynes himself nearly blew up his own account in the 1920s being early and over-leveraged on currency bets. He survived, adapted, and became a great investor. But it almost ended before it started.

What All of This Is Actually About

Look at what every single one of these rules has in common. It’s not earnings. It’s not Fed language. It’s not some indicator crossover. It’s forced participants — buyers who have to buy and sellers who have to sell — and your job is to be on the other side of their desperation. The parabola is forced buyers exhausting themselves. The bottom is forced sellers capitulating. The crash is forced longs getting liquidated. Find the participant with no choice. Take the other side.

And then there’s the darker thread running through all of this: nearly every name in this post knew these rules cold and still got hurt the moment emotion overrode discipline. Livermore died broke. Druckenmiller torched $3 billion. Keynes nearly washed out. The rules themselves are simple enough to fit in a tweet and end with “Have a nice day.”

Following them when every nerve in your body is screaming the other way — that’s the whole game.

Markets don’t change. People don’t change. Which is exactly why a rule written for tulip traders still applies to whatever chart you’re watching right now.

Sell parabolic moves. Have a nice day.

Nothing in here is investment advice. This is market history and behavioral pattern recognition — the kind that’s survived a hundred years because the thing it describes never does.

Last week ended with reaching new highs and over the weekend we have seen the news of an Iran Peace Deal which quickly had Futures hit new highs as well. Since then there has been some news of US Military attacks in Southern Iran and the market has pulled back a bit but regardless this week will be key to see if the market has a successful retest of the previous highs.

S&P is up eight straight weeks and the Nasdaq hit some key technicals that often bring a pause (flat average over 3 months)

Despite Tech running a bit hot here, we just saw massive inflows last week into the sector.

Last time we saw inflow like this? October 2025 where we saw a decent correction.

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We also entered the Warsh era in the market as he was sworn in as the new Fed Chair. In the past this often brings an average drawdown of >15% in the 1st 6 months. This is something top of mind for me as we head into the summer months where Q2-Q3 seasonality is the weakest window of the Mid Term Year Cycle.

Earnings this week include ZS (One of our Software Mortal Kombat names), PDD, Salesforce (Another SMK name), and Sentinal One.

Speaking of Sentinal One, cybersecurity has really come on strong of late, watch for consolidation to buy on pullbacks.

What I’m Watching (Korea, Precious Metals, and Yields)

The Korean Market has been beyond euphoric with citizens taking out life insurance policies to lever up exposure into Memory stocks, now that the Samsung strike is resolved and China begins pushing to compete in the memory space I believe it just needs a spark to pop the bubble we are seeing in the KOSPI / EWY index’s. That spark might be here soon.

Bank of Korea – May 28 Policy Meeting

The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to convene on May 28. This meeting is notable as it will be the first presided over by the newly appointed BOK Governor.

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This week’s report includes a few top companies in the world but expect several more to be added to the list if market holds the weekend gains from Iran Peace Deal.

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OVERSOLD SIGNALS - a few of the same names from last week that still are standing out for potential bounces are included

OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Nasdaq Futures stands out for a potential pause this summer as it average a flat return over 3 months. The 1999, 2020, and 2021 signals stand out.

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If this gave you an edge, pass it on. Cheers.

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Memorial Day brings a longer weekend, barbecue, beer, among other of the finer things in life, such as seasonality charts. The example below show’s D.R Horton with a 100% hit rate over this time window of May 22nd to July. I do think a few of the homebuilders look compelling here, especially if rates top out, even if only short term.

The seasonality window here points to a strong Thursday, which we had, and then next week often being on the weaker side of things. The window from Memorial Day to Labor Day is often quite bullish. I like the idea of fading any positive opens on Tuesday.

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The other piece to consider is the overall seasonality of the market at this stage. Typically in Mid Term years we start to see the market stall out around these levels into weakness during Q3. However, Trump has surrounded himself with market wizards and in combination with a strong earnings season, the market continues to push up.

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From a month by month basis, divided into halves, you can see some nice patterns emerge for the rest of the year but this data is not specific for Mid Term Year’s so would recommend saving this cheat sheet as it comes in handy regardless of where we are in any Presidential Cycle. The 1st half of June is often bullish where the 2nd half can be weaker. July to end of September typically some weakness. Keep this in mind.

Volatility has been declining and this is normal going into Memorial Day Weekend. The VIX historically drifts lower into Memorial Day, sometimes hitting multi-week lows as traders front-run declining realized volatility — making long premium plays expensive heading into the holiday. The broader "Sell in May and Go Away" dynamic also fits here: November–April still meaningfully outperforms the summer window even when Memorial Day–Labor Day is net positive

With all this said, I like to trade the volatility during Mid Term Year’s and then be positioned for the winning setup of buying around the end of October-Early November window with a incredible average forward return of >36% over 12 months. This has such a strong success rate it has often been a good strategy for my own portfolio. Hope you all have a great Memorial Weekend, cheers!

Last week we saw weakness on Friday as the market started to prep for life after Opex. The data I shared regarding the weekly bollingers I believe will continue to be an edge as this market should pause (at a minimum) here. The key is to figure out will the pause escalate to something worse or can this market continue to push the limits to the upside.

Seasonality suggests the true test in the market is coming for 2026 with a new Fed Chair and the bond market push yields to new highs.

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Market Outlook

Short term I think we see markets cool down and start to test some supports, starting with the QQQ’s at 700 and SPY at 724. I’m already positioned for market downside and the key reasoning for this is

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Here's the tape, the binary, and the dates.

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THE SETUP IN 60 SECONDS

1. SPY & QQQ both closed outside weekly Bollinger bands — rare simultaneous event. Last comparable signal led to a pullback.

   

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Trade Idea’s

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Last week we saw earnings for some of the most important companies in the world and the market proceeded to reach new highs.

Now that we are at these new highs will the momentum continue or is the data showing risk around the corner?

We have lots of earnings coming out over the next few days, so in this week’s paper I’ll be breaking down what I’m seeing for many of those names as well as the overall market.

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Market Outlook

Tech ripped over 16% in April — a move that’s only happened a handful of times during the dotcom cycle, and each instance led to a pullback before higher prices. Moves like this reset sentiment and tend to bring serious volatility on the other side.

Chasing this kind of run isn’t the trade. Buying pullbacks into support, locking in profits on the way up of these parabolic moves, is how I like to position and play it here.

Semiconductors just went on a historic rally, the data show’s similar occurrences where you saw weekly RSI reach these heights. If semi’s proceed to have a correction, or even have topped, what does that do to the index’s? I am not saying that is the case, but the data below is compelling to consider that is a possibility.

Seasonality during Q2-Q3 of Mid Term Year’s is the weakest of the cycle and while many point to the strength often found in May the reality is that Mid Term Year’s change that typical path. That is not finding a negative bias, it is being aware of the nuances of real seasonality.

Sentiment has totally shifted from the end of March, with many now calling for 8K on the SPX.

All of my data and readings are pointing to a strong pullback or correction coming soon. I’m not saying to play this with puts, but be aware that this could disrupt any shorter-dated trades you have active right now. I believe that these pullbacks could be swift to reset sentiment and then set up the next upside move. Position accordingly. For the Q’s I am watching that 640 level as a potential pullback target.

Earnings This Week

Below I will go through companies reporting this week and highlight tactical setups I’m seeing. Reminder that if the market is on the verge of correcting it can create weakness across the board but the 2nd part so many forget is that the reason a strong report can still selloff, is that the market is a machine for pricing in downside and upside. If your favorite company sells off on a strong report it could be because it was already in the price, but it could also be that the market is now pricing in the potential for peak earnings this cycle.

• BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway) - potential rejection at 100W moving average but also at bottom of current range. Clearing 478 and then 497 would setup for new highs in 2026.

• PLTR (Palantir) - 125 as support, 164 as potential resistance where it has rejected several times already at the 200D.

  

• ON (On Semi) - already outside the weekly bollinger and the sector setting up for a cool down most likely. Watching for a test of previous highs near 111 as upside, gap fill just below 90 as downside target.

  

• GRAB (Grab Holdings) - fan favorite down nearly 50% from the highs

  

• DUOL (Duolingo) - Weekly starting to curl up here, need to clear 125 for continued upside, squeeze candidate.

  

• SHOP (Shopify) - looks bullish above 127, watch for gap fill near 131. A strong reaction and squeeze could setup a higher target of 155.

  

• PYPL (Paypal) - filled gap at 52 and been consolidating since. With daily a bit extended not a fan of this setup but upside targets near 57, then 61.

  

• AMD (Tue PM) — Sets entire AI complex tone. Don’t like chasing this move so far outside the monthly bollinger.

  

• MSTR (MicroStrategy) - bullish above 169, can target as high as 230 with a proper squeeze post earnings. Downside target at 148 gap fill area.

  

• NVO (NovoNordisk) - gap fill near 47 for upside, downside target of 39. A strong breakout this week can lead to the 200D at 50.

  

• UBER

  

• CVS - false breakout look

  

• ARM - small sample size but previous weekly RSI’s over 70 marked short term tops. Watch for retest of 182 breakout level.

• APP (Applovin) - Needs to clear 496

  

• SNAP - could be setting up another test of the 200D over 7

  

• CELH (Celsius) - a breakout post earnings could target 40.

• DDOG (DataDog) - over the 200D here and needs to hold it, break above 143 and could go on a big run.

  

• IOVA - negative reaction could fill the gap just below 3.00

  

• CRWV (Coreweave) - needs to clear 126

  

• IREN - a break below 42 would not be ideal as it looks to hold above the 200D

  

• MELI (Mecardolibre) - above 1900 can target the 200D near 2100.

  

• AFRM (AFFIRM) - right at the 200D currently, think risk is there for a strong rejection

  

• COIN - Bitcoin is the key as always

  

• ENB (Enbridge) - has been a strong name throughout the past couple years, had a decline in May of 2025 into the summer.

  

• ARRY (Array Tech) - clear 8.50 to target double digits upside

  

Final Thoughts

With lots of earnings this week and the market running hot, I think the opportunities here are really good to capture some nice profits. Watch for any weakness to start the week as and will be key early on to see if semi’s start to have that pullback. I’ll be releasing my tactical trade idea’s to paid subscribers so be sure to take advantage of the summer discount to all the new data and reports dropping soon.

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As I laid out in the weekly update, we’re approaching a potential inflection point in the market. Positioning here matters—because whether we break higher or roll over, the next move could be decisive. The setups below are designed to capitalize on either outcome, leaning into asymmetric risk/reward as volatility begins to reprice. Let’s dive in.

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Big week ahead. FOMC decision, mega-cap tech earnings, month-end rebalancing — and a stack of macro and technical signals that all lean the same way. The weight of evidence says this is the right spot to take a few asymmetric shots.

Here’s the setup.

1. FOMC Timing Has a Pattern

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Current Backdrop

Market sentiment at the March lows has now reversed into one of the strongest rallies in recent memory, with semiconductors leading a historic squeeze and the broader market following.

The thesis remains that upside in the S&P 500 is becoming increasingly capped near the upper end of the current range, even if price can still overshoot in the near term on strong earnings and momentum flows. At the same time, no clean recession signal has emerged from recent earnings, credit data, or broad corporate commentary, which keeps the market in a late-cycle squeeze rather than a confirmed macro breakdown.

The central question for the week ahead is no longer whether the market can rally, but whether Wednesday’s combination of FOMC and major big-tech earnings becomes the first real turning point in the current move.

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Macro View

Recent earnings from banks, insurers, industrials, and cyclicals still point to an economy that is slowing in places but not yet rolling over into recession.​ The broader earnings backdrop has been better than feared, especially in sectors tied to healthcare and industrial demand.​ That matters because it explains why the tape keeps refusing to break despite elevated rates, geopolitical stress, and stretched positioning. More important than all this is the changing of the guard with a new fed chair coming in.

One thing to keep an eye on is historical seasonality for yields during Presidential Cycles, this chart below stands out to me with a new Fed Chair coming in combination with it being a Mid Term year.

The Real Story: Semiconductors

The defining feature of this market remains the semiconductor complex, which has produced an unprecedented 18-day winning streak and one of the fastest rallies on record for the group.

This is not just a strong sector tape. It is the backbone of the current equity rally, and it is where positioning, narrative, and liquidity are all clustering at once. Large dark-pool and institutional block activity has been disproportionately concentrated in semiconductor names of late and could be signaling a cooldown is around the corner.

Attempting to fade semiconductors has been the wrong trade in the short term. Stops were hit on my own trade idea trying to fade this move. Historic squeezes can stay overextended longer than most traders expect. But that does not make the move low risk. Historically, similar momentum bursts often create short-term volatility even when the bigger intermediate trend remains upward.

Why Wednesday is Key

This week places the Federal Reserve and major technology earnings on the same day, which raises the odds of a meaningful inflection in narrative and price action.​ Microsoft, Apple, and other large-cap reports arrive into a market that has already priced in a great deal of optimism across the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor complex.​ If those results are merely good instead of exceptional, the market may discover that a large amount of upside is already embedded in current prices.​

That makes Wednesday the clearest decision point of the week. A constructive reaction could fuel one more spike higher and keep the path open toward an upper target zone near 7200 to 7300 in the S&P 500.​ A poor reaction, especially if semiconductors and the major AI-linked leaders fail to hold gains, would materially increase the odds that the market could pullback here. After the recent rally the risk / reward for upside is not a strong one.

The key question is not simply whether a pullback happens. The more important question is whether the next pullback is a shallow cooling-off phase before another leg higher, or the beginning of a deeper 15% to 20% drawdown that resets the excesses built up since the March lows. Historical midterm-year seasonality supports the idea that sharp dips and recoveries can coexist within the same year, which is another reason not to confuse the first sign of weakness with the final outcome.

Positioning and Risk

One of the best ways to frame the current tape is through Paul Tudor Jones’s observation that the final third of a bull or bear move is often the hardest part to trade. This market has that feel. Momentum is powerful, breadth has improved in key leadership areas, and yet the speed of the move makes timing reversals extremely difficult.

That is why the current approach favors patience over prediction. The portfolio focus stays on key long-term holdings and higher-conviction cornerstones. The rally has likely created opportunities to continue raising cash into strength while maintaining hedges, rather than forcing aggressive shorts into a market that is still responding well to momentum and upgrades. However, positioning is continuing to signal some euphoria here. The chart below shows current Equity Put / Call Ratio, notice how this often aligns with a pullback.

Attempting to call the exact top of a historic semiconductor squeeze is a low-probability game. (Although I have tried a few times admittingly) Confidence is much higher that better buying opportunities will appear later this year than it is in pinpointing the exact day the market turns. That distinction matters. It suggests a strategy built around preserving both financial and mental capital, so that when preferred targets finally offer discounted entry points, there is room to act decisively.

Final Thoughts

The plan is straightforward. Stay constructive enough to respect the trend, but cautious enough to recognize that the market is entering one of its highest-risk timing windows of the year. Wednesday is the likely inflection point, but the response afterward matters more than the event itself.​ Reminder the “sell in May” narrative is almost entirely driven by how weak the seasonality turn in Mid Term Year’s in the summer. See the chart below highlighting this.

This quote from one of my favorite investors sums up the week ahead perfectly for how I am viewing it.

“Given the 20% increase in the Mag7 stocks since their March 30th bottom driving a 13% increase in the S&P to technically overbought levels, the risk reward after this sharp rally is not great and a shallow correction would not surprise me in the near-term. The longer oil stays in the $90s, the more the odds ramp up for something more severe as the market starts to discount a more stagflationary environment.”

Until the tape proves otherwise, the best posture is to continue raising cash where appropriate, stay hedged, and avoid overtrading in low conviction setups. If the market powers higher, there is still room to participate through core holdings and existing exposure. If the market finally breaks, the goal is to be ready with capital and conviction for the better opportunities that should emerge later in 2026. I’ll be sharing a deep dive for paid subs going over the most favorable setups going into this week, its going to be a big one, cheers!

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Mid Term Cycle and The New Fed Chair

We’re coming into this week off an incredible rally, with a few of my upside targets getting tagged. We also just got our first real glimpse of the incoming Fed chair, with Warsh emphasizing that he “takes the responsibility to be an independent Fed leader very seriously” and that he “doesn’t believe in forward guidance.” That shift in tone is something I’ll be watching closely through the rest of the year, because it has the potential to inject exactly the kind of volatility you’d expect in a midterm phase of the cycle – and with it, a better buying window.

So the trade ideas this week are intentionally simple, and I’m also flagging one long‑term name I think has 5–10x potential over the next few years.

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Trade Ideas:

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The Big Picture

We ended last week nearly 20% from the lows on the Nasdaq, officially wiping bear’s out and creating near euphoria across the market. I do believe it was a pain trade to see a move like that. However, now we are seeing call volumes spike and earnings season kick into high gear. CTA’s bought nearly 90B in equities over a week’s time, with more to come potentially. Historically these forced-buying episodes front-load returns; the question becomes whether organic demand steps in to sustain the move or we simply borrowed from future gains

I am watching for a continuation into 7200/7300 level after a brief pause, but expect 6600 gap fill area to filled by the end of the summer and possibly much sooner if big tech earnings fail to meet expectations. Iran news is something that seems to cause back and forth, without a doubt, but the longer you are in markets you find that the flow and technicals tell the story, they are the key thing to follow. It never is about what Washington, Banks, or Hedge funds are saying, its about what they are doing.

Netflix earnings topped off last week and saw nearly a 10% decline, oil sold off via ceasefire news, and Michael Burry mentioned “needle tops” which is always fun. But where does the market go after such a historic rally? Forward returns data signals a bullish bias is appropriate but I think its important to zoom out and take a 2nd level look at the data. Lets dive in.

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The Rally of all Rallies

A true historic run in the index’s off the March low’s. On March 29th I shared my Q2 Outlook and wrote about the data supporting a strong rally. The rally that came was far stronger than I expected, nearly 17% in the Nasdaq.

The strong rallies are not uncommon to see in Mid Term Years, they can be very volatile and challenging to navigate. The key is these type of markets is often to avoid over leverage and short dated options, leaning into higher conviction setups and avoiding overtrading a volatile market.

• Seasonal Context: Q2-Q3 Historically weak in Mid Term Years, this recent rally follows the map well, we rally to start before rolling back over into the summer.

  The broader question, the entire world wants energy lower, and I think that’s ultimately the path it takes. But will cheaper oil be enough to keep the U.S. economy afloat as we move deeper into a Mid Term year?

  

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• Key Watchouts: Iran escalation and that impact on oil and the dollar could negatively impact markets in the short term but earnings are going to be what matters here soon, NFLX earnings have already disappointed but banks actually reported strong data for the consumer with very little loans > 90 days in delinquency.

• Earnings: Key watchouts for me this week are Tesla, Intel, ServiceNow, and Blackstone.

  

Macro & Data Watch

Tuesday I’ll be keeping a eye on the future Fed Chair testifying, this could be a catalyst the market wants to react to in terms of rates. ( TLT / TNX )

Dark Pool and Volume Leader Signals

Lots of interesting prints ended the week. #1 Print all time for XLE stands out. The price has since declined under the print and then closed right at it on Friday.

The #1 all-time print in XLE, with price pulling back and closing right at the print level on Friday, combined with the current RSI read, sets up a strong argument for a bounce short term.

Stock and Sector Specifics

In this section I’ll give comments on a few pieces but mostly share forward returns for the weekly earnings names I’m watching. This worked well for Netflix last week.

INTC

Intel has earnings upcoming this week and is up nearly 50% in a span of just a few weeks. The #1 print came in on Friday for the 2x INTC ETF. Since 2020, the Forward Returns haven’t been favorable to Intel when RSI gets this overbought.

BX

Blackstone with earnings this week, watching for a rejection off the weekly 20SMA or a push to the 50SMA near 148.

TSLA

Tesla has picked up steam here and needs to hold above the 200D to push towards 417. I rally into 417 ahead of earnings might be a good take profit level. (Or Short Opportunity) The Mid Term Seasonality is not favorable for Elon here.

NOW

ServiceNow reports earnings this week, everyone should know by now I am extremely bullish long term on the name. If earnings reaction is strong its possible the 120’s are tested this week.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned, the technicals and flow will be the guide here. This is not the zone to be leveraging up IMO but instead de-risking and planning ahead as volatility remains throughout the year. What levels are you buying at? What levels, if hit, are zones to take profit? When opportunity comes, will you be ready to take advantage?

As of now we are 20% off the lows, CTAs fully loaded, and have call volumes spiking.

Paul Tudor Jones said it best:

“The most important thing for me is that defense is 10 times more important than offense.” We're in the strait — watch the rocks, not the horizon.

I’ll be releasing my week ahead trade idea’s to paid subscribers on Monday, be sure to take advantage. Cheers!

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Quick Recap

The index’s gapped up overnight off Iran peace discussions, right into potential resistance. Just wanted to put out a quick update but locking profit at open feels like the right move here but we shall see. For now, we want to see if we can break through resistance, 6800 will be key for SPX for upside, 6500 as support below.

Look at the similarities here to 2022 (I am not trying to perma-bear here, just an observation).

Even the weekly RSI bounce level is at the same spot.

SPY Levels

Large Prints From Today

EWY - South Korea ETF, with the #1 Cluster

SPXL - $200M Print Today, likely profit taking for the 3x SPY ETF

Final Thoughts

My lean is that this move fades but could hold up into Opex, CPI print incoming though and could spike volatility. Watch for that 20 level on the $VIX.

Key reminder is that this is a Mid-Term Year, lots of volatility is likely throughout. Survive into November with plenty of cash to deploy and enjoy the the upside.

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