Time for a spooky forecast on the market, just for fun hopefully…
The market continues to track 2018 across the board in the index’s, should this unfold again I am going to share who performed best and who fell almost 50% (spoiler, it was Nvidia)
Below is the Nasdaq analog, scary right? I highly doubt this happens again, but what I like about analogs is it allows me to avoid tunnel vision, and prepare for multiple different scenarios, even this one.
S&P500 with the same look at the Nasdaq here, Trumps market are unique it would seem.
Small caps have tracked the closest of the three and the situation is very similar to 2018 where there was a tantrum thrown by the market until Jerome Powell backed off raising rates more.
If The Scenario Happens Again Who Outperforms?
Last time this happened, defensives such as Proctor & Gamble worked well but then you have standouts like Starbucks, don’t ask me why, coffee must have been HOT that year. On the decliners, Nvidia stands out at a 45% drawdown.
Long TLT, SLV, and Gold were the strongest setups during the window from Mid October to Year End of 2018. Just so happens to the portfolio build favored TLT and Gold into this recent volatility. Luck maybe?
I continue to really like Gold in a risk off or risk on environment
Okay, that is enough for the scary stuff, now for the reality of what we are seeing in today’s market.
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