Carving Through Volatility
Midweek Market Update
The market is facing another overnight selloff as Iran tensions rise, risk in private equity swells, and the backdrop grows increasingly chaotic with a new Fed chair on the horizon. The key question now is: how do we trade this environment? How do we profit — or at least preserve capital — when the slopes are this unpredictable?
In times like these, I focus on setups that stack the odds in my favor. Maybe it’s a signal like the weekly RSI — when a stock tanks, odds tilt toward a snapback rally. Maybe it’s spotting accumulation in prints and dark pools, or identifying an underpriced catalyst on the verge of ignition. Whatever the approach, the goal is the same: pinpoint which strategies fit your mindset, then go out and execute.
Volatile markets are like skiing on a steep, wind-whipped mountain — thrilling for those who can stay balanced, but punishing for those who lose control. I thrive on that chaos, but one over-aggressive move can send you tumbling fast. Once you’ve found your edge — the setups that consistently work for you — that discipline becomes your anchor. Those same setups should hold up in most conditions, even when the market’s terrain turns wild.
Now, let’s dive in
Index’s
If SPY breaks below 670, we could see a retest of the November lows. Over the past two sessions, there have been large clusters appearing in the inverse SPY ETF — a potential signal worth watching for clues of a bottom once those prints return. I highly recommend leveraging VolumeLeaders to spot these developments. It’s not about predicting the market’s next move, but about increasing your awareness of the moving pieces and possible scenarios. That way, you’re not panicking over red futures overnight — you’re simply following a plan grounded in price action
Should 650’s break, watch for 630’s as next potential target. Keep in mind, closing price is what I often focus on. I see so many get stopped out of trades because support is undercut but then quickly reclaimed, patience is key. Should we rally, need to see a clean break over 680 to target 682, 685. My lean is we bottom sometime between now and FOMC, setting up potential for new highs, but Mid Term years I often keep expectations low.
Trade Idea’s
Long Bonds / TLT — I know what you’re thinking: inflation this, inflation that — I get it. And yes, elevated oil prices like we’ve seen lately aren’t ideal for something like TLT. But I try to keep things simple. The new Fed Chair’s short-term mission is clear: lower rates. At the same time, fear across markets is rising, driven by geopolitics and the risk of a potential credit crisis. Layoffs are accelerating — fast. So the question becomes: what represents the true flight to safety, and what stands to benefit from a Fed Chair determined to cut?
To me, this looks like a mispriced catalyst that also doubles as a hedge if a flight to safety theme takes hold later this year. Recently, several large prints hit VCLT (Corporate Bonds), which tends to track almost perfectly with TLT — and notably, those prints came after the selloff. I like the risk–reward setup here
Final Thoughts
I’ll have live alerts on the market and trade ideas for paid subscribers, but if you ever have questions about a setup or the market, I’m always happy to share my two cents. My hope is that you find the setups that fit your style this year — the ones that keep you steady when the slope gets unpredictable. And if you’ve already found your edge, it’s time to lean into it and execute with confidence.
Cheers!