Volatility spiked today and we have CPI tomorrow. Several charts across the market are signaling risk off but is it a trap? 9/11 historically is a bullish day and we have several large prints hit the tape today, maybe a bounce is around the corner.
Index’s
The 4 hour RSI on S&P future has been a good read for bounces the past few months
combine that with strong 9/11 seasonality and this supports the idea of a bounce, how strong or how long it last is the important question
Bond Market
Bonds have been screaming but TLT hit my level today, wouldn’t be surprised though with a scare under 80 still.
Homebuilders
The homies have been a key indicator for the economy and market, but sitting at support here
Energy
Leaning we are close to a top in oil as energy names didn’t really follow strength today and hitting some key levels.
The thing about commodities, especially oil, macro matters.
CPI Setup
I think risk is there to tag the gap fill at 748 tomorrow, but with it being 9/11 my lean is that is a potential buyable dip.
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Midweek Update - Around The Edges
We remain in the seasonal area where risk could arise at moments notice but have managed to navigate things quite well so far. There are a few really good setups starting to form but the key will be to remain patient and not fall for the many traps currently being set. Lets dive in, starting with a nice trade setup here.