Don't Fear the Reaper
The Week Ahead 3/15/26
The Big Picture
We’re right in the middle of classic midterm-year chaos — not just in markets, but across global headlines — all while SPX grinds toward the initial Q1 target around 6500. In an environment like this, impulse control becomes the most valuable asset you have. FOMC week is here, and while that alone usually calls for lighter positioning, the added layer of uncertainty out of Iran reinforces the case for patience and discipline.
My focus this week is on scaling into favorite setups carefully — using shares or leveraged ETFs near downside targets rather than trying to time every bounce or flush. Volatility will come and go; managing your mental game is what truly protects capital. That means having a plan written out ahead of time — the levels you’re buying, trimming, or adding — and sticking to it.
I’ve outlined my framework for Monday through Wednesday based on key indicators and index levels. It’s a reminder to trade with intention, not impulse. I’ve never regretted following my plan, but I have regretted chasing noise. Outperformance, especially in high-volatility environments, doesn’t come from guessing — it comes from clarity, preparation, and execution.
Once you’ve built your plan, you can step into the market chaos with confidence instead of fear. The goal isn’t to avoid the storm — it’s to carve through it with control.
Index’s
For the majors, the tape remains fragile with downside levels in focus. Acceptance below 659 on SPY opens the door to a quick slide toward the 650 shelf, where heavy trade last appeared back in October. I’m watching for SPY and the QQQ’s to test the 200D on Monday and could setup a bounce.
On the Q’s, the playbook is simple, watch for the 200D to hold.
Macro & Data Watch
Three Keys This Week
PPI Core MoM at or above 0.5% on Wednesday would confirm January’s heat wasn’t a one-off and likely pushes VIX north of 30 into the Fed decision.
FOMC - If the dot-plot median drifts higher by even 25 bps, treat it as a regime shift: the Fed is effectively done cutting for now, and broken equity levels flip from “buy the dip” zones to real resistance.
Jobless claims printing above 220K on Thursday would be the first clean labor crack, flipping the narrative from inflation fear to growth fear and shifting the playbook from “fade the spikes” to “watch for capitulation.”
This week really comes down to whether Powell validates the growth scare or waves it off — everything else is just a setup.
Earnings Focus: Watch towards the middle of the week if you have a combo of Index’s hitting key levels such as SPY 650 (or slight undercut into 640’s) in combination with a negative reaction off a morning earnings report, could be a good bounce setup. For Monday I will be watching DLTR to see if the uptrend could be a trade opportunity if tagged.
Stock & Sector Specifics
Financials continue to show weakness, with heavy outflows driven by rising credit risk and the latest Iran headlines weighing on the major indexes. Several core XLF components like GS, BLK, and AXP now sit in classic mean-reversion territory, with oversold weekly RSI readings and sentiment effectively dead on arrival to start the week. For traders who like to fade extremes, this basket is starting to line up as a potential bounce candidate rather than a fresh short.
Single Stock & Dark Pool Alerts
Speaking of financials, AXP (American Express) has a 100% hit rate over the past 10 years buying the week of 3/15 and holding through April. I love putting the odds in my favor and this is one piece of evidence I’m watching as a trade candidate for the week ahead.
Another piece of evidence I always look at is there any clue in dark pools and clusters of prints that could signal potential buying or selling. AXP checks this box on this as well where we see two recent large prints hit.
Final Thoughts
This week — and likely the rest of the month — carries real downside risk at almost any moment. There will be sharp rallies, but in a midterm year my focus stays on staying nimble and only pressing the highest‑conviction setups, while reserving most of my long‑term capital deployment for late October into the first week of November, where the historical win rate is as close to 100% as it gets. The priority from here is impulse control and patience: let the setups come to you, then execute with confidence when your levels and signals line up. I’ll be releasing my Q2 Gameplan in the coming weeks so make sure to subscribe, cheers!