FOMC Update

Trade Idea's and How I am Navigating Today's Setup

Jun 17, 2026

∙ Paid

Today we get Warsh’s first FOMC as Chair, typically this is a nice time not to oversize and let the dust settle. We are seeing some key signals for risk in the market here but with it being Opex week there a good chance that weakness, if any, really comes next week after options expire. From a seasonal standpoint we are also entering a very weak period in the 2nd Half of June. The numbers back this up.

Seasonality - Bluekurtic has a great chart showing weakness around this time year “Since 2000, week after Juneteenth has been positive just 27% of the time for the S&P 500 and 37% for the Nasdaq 100”

Bar chart showing the historical performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 during the week after Juneteenth since 2000. The S&P 500 posted gains only 27% of the time, while the Nasdaq 100 was positive 37% of the time, highlighting relatively weak seasonality following the holiday.

Index’s - watch for a gap fill on SPY around 742 as a potential area to swing for new highs. I am not a fan of going long the market here but I do think there is a chance we squeeze higher during July. The overall market to me is showing late cycle signals and if semi’s top it will be hard to continue to grind the index’s higher.

Semiconductors - if the market leader tops, what does that mean for the market?

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