After a August where key holdings like Gold and Software delivered excellent returns, it is now time to turn to September where it will take a new mindset to navigate properly. The data and price action will be key as always but with Midterms around the corner and the Warsh Era kicking into high gear, staying nimble around different strategies and risk management will be a big focus.
1st, if you want to review how the August write up went, I have opened it up so free subscribers can see how key it was for navigating the past month.
Today’s report will cover the September portfolio build and the key data I am looking at to create an edge to finish strong in a often very volatile Q3.
Speaking of volatility, the data below shows where VIX Futures often start to ramp hard into September and the 1st half of October during a most years.
The Week Ahead
I’m introducing a new format to help us navigate each week with seasonal returns by day for the week ahead. I hope you find it valuable.
The top bar show the monthly and weekly historical returns with the best and worst day from a seasonal standpoint for the upcoming week. The bar below it shows each day and the week as a whole.
Then it shows the typical path for the entire month, in this case it shows all years with the red path being Midterm years.
My favorite data is below the typical path where I highlight key data points, it works as a very nice cheat sheet.
The big catalyst this week will be on Friday where we get the jobs report. My lean is that if the numbers come in weak, it could cause a fade to the rate hike odds for September, which would mean yields come down, TLT / GLD potentially go up.
Seasonality Guides
September Market Outlook
I stand by initial thesis laid out in August where we can see some strength and the
