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PolycarpFX

Midweek Market Update

Nvidia Earnings, Key Levels, and Finding an Edge in the Data

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PolycarpFX
Feb 25, 2026
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The Backdrop

Our week started off with a nice sell, supposedly due to the Citrini report released over the weekend. His write up was pure gold as entertainment, and did include some legitimate concerns.

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The past 6 (now 7) years in a row we have had a good selloff the 1st trading day after February Opex.

spy" - Results on X | Live Posts & Updates

NVDA Earnings Guide

  • Previous reactions to earnings since 2020 are in the chart below. Last February we had a negative reaction the day of, and in the forward returns. The recent earnings have been relatively muted.

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  • Another interesting chart from Bluekurtic here. I can’t find any edge in it, but I am sure its in there.

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  • Dark pools below show an interesting level where you could

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