PolycarpFX Q3 Market Outlook
Volatility Season Kicks Off - Seasonal Cheat Sheet and Q3 Portfolio
Welcome to the Q3 - 2026 Market Outlook— The quarterly write ups likely have created the most value of any of my releases. From alpha generating seasonal setups to navigating the latest dark pool prints, and research on some of the best under the radar names out there, I try to really create exceptional value
Lets dive in…..
How Did Q2 Outlook Perform?
I had Claude run an analysis and grade the Q2 Trade Idea’s, I did this for Q1 as well and was released in the prior quarterly write up. I will keep doing this throughout each quarterly paper.
Claude gave an A-, I would call it a C+. Execution wasn’t to my expectation and so this time around I will be sharing a Q3 Portfolio and Strategy for each Month of the quarter.
The Midterm Year Playbook: Putting the Odds in Your Favor
“The smallest historical drawdown has been -7.4%, while the largest was -41.8%. What determines which scenario plays out? Leverage, sentiment, and earnings growth. Right now, we’re sitting with accelerating leverage, sentiment that’s elevated but not panicked, and a market that’s priced for perfection.” - Quote from the Q1 Outlook
“Every major economy on earth wants crude lower, geopolitical premiums don’t stay bid forever” - Quote from the Q2 Outlook
Q3 Seasonality
Each month has its own flavor but the quarter as a whole is the most volatile of the year. Later on in the write up you will find the cheat sheet guide for each month.
Volatility Seasons kicks off in Q3 and with it includes a market where staying nimble will be key and remembering the north star can be very profitable. (November buying Window)
1H July Window - One reason I wanted to add the monthly breakdowns of the quarter is because of the chart above. There is strong reason to believe the 1st half of July is generally bullish, “Since 2010, this seasonal period has been negative only once for the indices.”
Always key to remember there are no guarantees in the market. Many of these seasonal edges are getting more widespread attention, leaving room for Wallstreet to shift this often strong window into a trap. Speaking of traps…
The Weakest Window of The Year
For a Mid Term Year, this is the one quarter where being a tad more cautious has the potential to pay off. You can see in the chart where Q4 is usually the risk- on setup.
My quarterly write ups likely have created the most value of any of my releases. From alpha generating seasonal setups to navigating the latest dark pool prints, and research on some of the best under the radar names out there, I try to really create exceptional value for my subscribers.
This write up even includes a Cheat Sheet for Q3 Seasonals Specifically for each month, each week. If you haven’t tried out the premium access, not a bad time to take it for spin.
My Core Thesis for Q3 2026:
