Spring Into Action
The Week Ahead 3/8/26
The Big Picture
March opened with even more drama layered on top of an already choppy tape. We kicked off the week with U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and the assassination of much of Tehran’s leadership, which produced the expected war‑shock open: oil and metals spiked, travel and cyclicals gapped lower, futures traded heavy, and then—dip‑buyers stepped in and pushed the indices back toward flat by the close. Mid‑week saw more headline‑driven chop as markets tried to price a conflict that clearly won’t be a two‑day event.
That’s not exactly an easy backdrop—war headlines, rising yields, and rolling sector landmines are classic mid‑term‑year ingredients—but despite the noise our performance was one of the best weeks of the year, we stayed focused on positioning into the panic rather than trading every wiggle, leaned into our best oversold themes, and finished the week solidly ahead of the indices.
Early Weakness: Writing this weeks paper later so we can take a look at the Futures open, deep red across the board.
Key Watchouts: Looks like we are closing in on my Q1 target of 6500’s, with current technical readings could be a great spot to buy the dip. My lean is that we bottom sometime this week but remember the tariff tantrum of last year, I have been pounding the table for a more defensive stance. Now as chaos around the world unfolds having cash ready and hedges serve as great ways to maximize the next opportunities. Our recent performance shows you can be defensive and out perform the market at the same time.
Macro & Data Watch
Iran + Fed Speakers : We enter the week in the Fed Blackout period and news out of the middle east likely will be the focus each day versus any data releases.
CPI + GDP: I’ll be watching CPI, GDP, and JOLTS this week and prep for FOMC the following week.
Jobs: The latest jobs report was the most underrated story to me from last week. Headline unemployment is still just 4.4%, but nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, with prior months revised lower as well. Under the surface, Charlie Bilello’s work puts a finer point on it: over the last six months the U.S. has averaged a net loss of roughly 1,000 jobs per month, and this is only the 12th time since 1950 we’ve seen this much weakness in the labor market—on the prior 11 occasions the economy was already in recession
Would you take this bet? I don’t trust the data or Washington to admit a recession so I wouldn’t, but, wouldn’t shock me based on the data.
Earnings Focus: With all the weakness in the index’s it can create some good buying opportunities, ORCL will be a key focus and potential target as sentiment and technicals are washed out.
Each week I share my favorite trade idea’s with paid subscribers, can take advantage of 15% off the annual sub through March.
Stock & Sector Specifics
Financials starting to create fear
Imagine the financial sector opens near the 100W, the next move will be key to watch.
I’ll be watching for a flush on the SFFI (Financials Above 50D) as a buy signal
Single Stock & Dark Pool Alerts
Yes, I am going to discuss MSFT again. We have trade several call options and MSFL of late but this trade hit last week and might be an opportunity should be the market open deep red. I don’t follow trades but I do like to put odds more in my favor.
Final Thoughts
It’s a short paper this week but it should be pretty straight forward week ahead, weakness has arrived, now how do we take advantage of it? Too late to chase puts longer term if you aren’t hedged as one tweet from Trump could rally markets. My lean is to continue being defensive and follow the SPY levels laid out below. As indicators start to show washed out levels, that is the time to strike. Until then, defense is the approach.
I hope you all enjoyed the content, i’ll be releasing my playbook and Trade Idea’s for Q2 in March for paid subscribers, so be on the lookout. A restack or share is always appreciated, cheers!
Remember, don’t focus too much on the now, but on the “what comes next”
