The Week Ahead 2/22/26
NVDIA Earnings, Claude Dominance, and the Path Forward
The Big Picture
Rotation has been the name of the game in February. Despite weakness in MAG7, Software, and Financials, the Index’s have held up quite well. The era of “Vibe Coding” has put risk on enterprise software companies across the market and Anthropic is seemingly adding to that risk each week with new releases. NVDA earnings this week has the potential to push the market out of its current trading range, but the key will be having a plan ahead of time, lets dive into it.
Seasonal Context: 2nd Half of February is often one of the weakest seasonals in the market, but with a week to go many heavily weight names look ready for a bounce. The path forward will be key, take note that in the “bull market” Mid Term years we see the market start to rally from here into April, in the “bear market” setup we rally into March Opex. In both cases that upside move is often sold.
Key Watchouts: NVDA earnings on Wednesday and any sign of MAG’s strength that can lead the market into that window of strength we see below, just remember what historically has come after.
Macro & Data Watch
Rotation is Trendy: Investor positioning now shows a move to Energy, Materials, and Staples along with a heavy move out of US stocks.
Prep for a Reversion - We are now seeing oversold levels on software & large caps and overbought reads on XLE & Defensives, watch for a quick reset on technicals for both. Chart via Duality Research
Earnings Focus: All eyes on NVDA but other names I am watching are
FANG (Big Winner from Q1 Trade Idea’s), could see it retest some support levels post earnings
HIMS - retail favorite, wouldn’t be surprised with a short covering squeeze before resuming the downtrend
MELI - a long term favorite
ZETA - another retail favorite but with better fundamentals
SNOW - last earnings I released a short report, maybe this time a long one?
ZS - buying opportunities in Cyber Security, could be a nice trade
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Stock & Sector Specifics
Cyber Security (Claude Risk or Opportunity?)
Enterprise software such as Salesforce and ServiceNow had taken the blunt of the damage until recently, now we are seeing the Cyber Security sector take a hit.
Only a few weeks ago we saw several rallying because of AI, now the opposite, is it an opportunity to the buy the dip?
Single Stock & Dark Pool Alerts
ZScaler has earnings after the close on Thursday, its weekly RSI is below 25, often a level I like to look for on long trade setups.
My lean is that the selloff last week was a trap and this name retest the 170’s in quick fashion, with a 2nd target just under 200
Commodities & Crypto
Gold
Flows: January saw record flows into the shiny precious metal
Trend: One of the strongest charts for some time now, that weekly candle from end of January still stands out though as a potential intermediate top.
Bitcoin
Flows: Negative flows over the past 50 days
Trend: Mid Term years have been historically weak for Bitcoin but has already seen a 50% decline from the highs in 2025. The 200W is a level I will be watching for potential buying opportunities, historically buys at or below that level have paid off quickly.
Final Thoughts
There is an abundance of risk in the market currently and we still have another week of this window of seasonal underperformance, but several of the technicals I am seeing imply a bounce shouldn’t be out of the question. My lean is that we chop around a bit more and rally into the 700’s before rolling over and hitting my downside target but timing it will be the challenge. For now I am focused on individual setups while remaining aware of overall market risk that could negatively impact long positions.
The key watch for me is performance of the Magnificent 7 over the next few weeks into March Opex, their price action will likely decide if we start to correct now or if we rally next.
SPY Levels - below 670 can target retest of November lows, above 698 opens door to clear into the 700’s. Below you see Bullish and Bearish scenarios.
I hope you all enjoyed the content, if you haven’t read my Top Trade Idea’s for Q1 2026 or the Q1 2026 Playbook, they have both been excellent guides for the market action we have seen so far and the trade idea’s have been spot on winners. I’ll be releasing my Playbook and Trade Idea’s for Q2 in March so be on the lookout. A restack or share is always appreciated, cheers!