The Week Ahead 3/1/26
March On - Seasonality Setup, Iran Escalation, and a $7B Trade Cluster on Friday
The Big Picture
February has come to an end after a very choppy month. We started out with weakness early on, bounced into the week of Valentines and then more chop. Plenty of drama throughout the month including the death of SaaS and now finishing up with fresh Iran War news over the weekend. Mid Term years are rarely an easy trading environment and I fully expect that to continue. But, there is good news as we turn the page to March.
Seasonal Context: March kicks off the 3rd strongest month of the seasonal Mid Term Year cycle.
Key Watchouts: Iran escalation and that impact on oil and the dollar could negatively impact markets in the short term. My lean is that this is resolved swiftly and market shakes it off, but should that not be the case, hedges will come in handy. Judging from positioning below in Brent, I believe this was already a well priced event.
Macro & Data Watch
Data Heavy Week + Fed Speakers : with the amount of data coming out this week and military strikes in the Middle East, I could see volatility stay elevated to start the week but then role over as tensions ease and data is released. That would line up with typical Mid Term Year cycles.
Earnings Focus: This week we have earnings from Target, Crowdstrike, Broadcom, and Costco. I’ll be paying close attention to CRWD’s earnings reaction and Costco for any read on the consumer and economy.
Reminder I will be releasing my trade idea’s for the week ahead to paid subs after this release, here is one example from last week’s list, NFXL ran over 50%
Includes Trade Idea’s, Live Market Updates in Discord, and Quarterly Market Deep Dives.
Stock & Sector Specifics
Software Positioning at Extremes
Short exposure to software remains at highs and sets up a nice rally on any catalyst as these positions start to cover.
Above 76, software looks primed for a bounce. Below and line in the sand becomes that 73 level.
Single Stock & Dark Pool Alerts
Microsoft with its 12th largest print coming in on Friday, a cluster of over 7 billion. MSFT also happens to be the largest weighted name in the IGV (Software) ETF.
Going into March this might be one of the best setups in the market right now, finishing the week above the trendline, oversold on weekly RSI readings, and in a crowded short sector.
Commodities & Crypto
Copper
Trend: One of the many strong metals this year, Copper was again mentioned by Stanley Drukenmiller in a recent interview with Morgan Stanley. He has previously called copper “in the tightest position I have ever studied,” tying it to EVs, data centers, and infrastructure. The 20D continues to show as a good support level.
Solana
Potential for a 2022 style bounce in March: Recent article from Citrini grabbed attention for its AI doom loop but the idea of Solana being a major player in financial transactions seems over looked. I could see a potential bounce in crypto this month before a continuation of typical Mid Term year weakness. No position here but thought it was worth a share.
Final Thoughts
When you line up all 4‑year presidential cycles, the weakest span on average is the Q2–Q3 window of the midterm year, where the market tends to chop or decline. My thesis here is to play short term upside this month and begin positioning for downside into the Summer and Fall. See below this chart from Nautilus Research on the 4 year cycle, this was shared in early January. We are now entering that window where the potential is there for some strength based off historical seasonality. This is just one data point, risk could arise at any moment and start a correction in the Index’s. My current thesis is we bounce early in March, potentially into April, and then the wheels fall off. For now, price as always will be the key metric to follow.
SPY Levels - 670 key support, 698 key resistance
I hope you all enjoyed the content, if you haven’t read “Software Mortal Kombat”, it was a big hit last week and several of the trades are still actionable. I’ll be releasing my playbook and Trade Idea’s for Q2 in March for paid subscribers, so be on the lookout. A restack or share is always appreciated, cheers!