The Week Ahead 5/4/26
25 Earnings Setups & High Conviction Market Setup
Last week we saw earnings for some of the most important companies in the world and the market proceeded to reach new highs.
Now that we are at these new highs will the momentum continue or is the data showing risk around the corner?
We have lots of earnings coming out over the next few days, so in this week’s paper I’ll be breaking down what I’m seeing for many of those names as well as the overall market.
Market Outlook
Tech ripped over 16% in April — a move that’s only happened a handful of times during the dotcom cycle, and each instance led to a pullback before higher prices. Moves like this reset sentiment and tend to bring serious volatility on the other side.
Chasing this kind of run isn’t the trade. Buying pullbacks into support, locking in profits on the way up of these parabolic moves, is how I like to position and play it here.
Semiconductors just went on a historic rally, the data show’s similar occurrences where you saw weekly RSI reach these heights. If semi’s proceed to have a correction, or even have topped, what does that do to the index’s? I am not saying that is the case, but the data below is compelling to consider that is a possibility.
Seasonality during Q2-Q3 of Mid Term Year’s is the weakest of the cycle and while many point to the strength often found in May the reality is that Mid Term Year’s change that typical path. That is not finding a negative bias, it is being aware of the nuances of real seasonality.
Sentiment has totally shifted from the end of March, with many now calling for 8K on the SPX.
All of my data and readings are pointing to a strong pullback or correction coming soon. I’m not saying to play this with puts, but be aware that this could disrupt any shorter-dated trades you have active right now. I believe that these pullbacks could be swift to reset sentiment and then set up the next upside move. Position accordingly. For the Q’s I am watching that 640 level as a potential pullback target.
Earnings This Week
Below I will go through companies reporting this week and highlight tactical setups I’m seeing. Reminder that if the market is on the verge of correcting it can create weakness across the board but the 2nd part so many forget is that the reason a strong report can still selloff, is that the market is a machine for pricing in downside and upside. If your favorite company sells off on a strong report it could be because it was already in the price, but it could also be that the market is now pricing in the potential for peak earnings this cycle.
BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway) - potential rejection at 100W moving average but also at bottom of current range. Clearing 478 and then 497 would setup for new highs in 2026.
PLTR (Palantir) - 125 as support, 164 as potential resistance where it has rejected several times already at the 200D.
ON (On Semi) - already outside the weekly bollinger and the sector setting up for a cool down most likely. Watching for a test of previous highs near 111 as upside, gap fill just below 90 as downside target.
GRAB (Grab Holdings) - fan favorite down nearly 50% from the highs
DUOL (Duolingo) - Weekly starting to curl up here, need to clear 125 for continued upside, squeeze candidate.
SHOP (Shopify) - looks bullish above 127, watch for gap fill near 131. A strong reaction and squeeze could setup a higher target of 155.
PYPL (Paypal) - filled gap at 52 and been consolidating since. With daily a bit extended not a fan of this setup but upside targets near 57, then 61.
AMD (Tue PM) — Sets entire AI complex tone. Don’t like chasing this move so far outside the monthly bollinger.
MSTR (MicroStrategy) - bullish above 169, can target as high as 230 with a proper squeeze post earnings. Downside target at 148 gap fill area.
NVO (NovoNordisk) - gap fill near 47 for upside, downside target of 39. A strong breakout this week can lead to the 200D at 50.
UBER
CVS - false breakout look
ARM - small sample size but previous weekly RSI’s over 70 marked short term tops. Watch for retest of 182 breakout level.
APP (Applovin) - Needs to clear 496
SNAP - could be setting up another test of the 200D over 7
CELH (Celsius) - a breakout post earnings could target 40.
DDOG (DataDog) - over the 200D here and needs to hold it, break above 143 and could go on a big run.
IOVA - negative reaction could fill the gap just below 3.00
CRWV (Coreweave) - needs to clear 126
IREN - a break below 42 would not be ideal as it looks to hold above the 200D
MELI (Mecardolibre) - above 1900 can target the 200D near 2100.
AFRM (AFFIRM) - right at the 200D currently, think risk is there for a strong rejection
COIN - Bitcoin is the key as always
ENB (Enbridge) - has been a strong name throughout the past couple years, had a decline in May of 2025 into the summer.
ARRY (Array Tech) - clear 8.50 to target double digits upside
Final Thoughts
With lots of earnings this week and the market running hot, I think the opportunities here are really good to capture some nice profits. Watch for any weakness to start the week as ON 0.00%↑ and AMD 0.00%↑ will be key early on to see if semi’s start to have that pullback. I’ll be releasing my tactical trade idea’s to paid subscribers so be sure to take advantage of the summer discount to all the new data and reports dropping soon.
