This Week’s Playbook: Dark Pool Flows, Crypto Pivot, and High-Conviction Trades

Data Heavy Week & Crypto Update

This week’s tape is setting up for exactly the kind of market where information and patience matter more than hot takes. Between a loaded macro calendar, VIX expiration, and some key levels getting tested on the indices, there is plenty of noise—but also a handful of clean, high‑conviction setups if you know where to look. In this post, the focus is on the trades that have real asymmetric potential, not a laundry list of tickers.

Index Positioning & Trade Thesis

Today’s View

Short term can expect higher volatility with bearish tape and economic data, I like to play this via being patient until Wednesday / Thursday or until 672 is hit (if hit). Once we are either at that 672 support, or are past Thursdays bulk of catalyst can play upside into year end. I know I started positioning for upside on Friday but if we see a green open I want to reduce risk now that I am back from traveling. Here is the reasoning why I liked buying upside on Friday. Very bullish read here on tech and sitting at support. TQQQ can work as a hold until 1st week of January or until 629 levels are tested again for the Q’s.

Big Picture View

BTC and SPY data shows Midterm years as highly volatile (to say the least). The safest route here is likely to wait until early January before positioning short to play this, but my highest conviction short for 2026 remains…