Weekly Signal Report 6/14/26

Gold, XLE, and a +31% Seasonal Backtest

Each week we release the latest readings and seasonality across the market to subscribers, if you enjoy these reports a like, share, or positive review is always appreciated.

OVERSOLD SIGNALS - Gold setup is very strong with FOMC as potential last hurdle this week

OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS - Energy setup is not favorable here

SEASONALITY - Seasonality for Energy is also quite weak with July having one of the worse hit rates for upside. FOMC and Future’s roll this week likely creates more volatility than usual for the day to day seasonality map.

SIGNAL OF THE WEEK - Seasonal Warning: Weakest Part of June Is Still Ahead

• June 14–27 is historically one of the weakest periods of the year for stocks.

• Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing often leads to:

  • Profit-taking in winners.

  • Rotation into laggards.

  • Lower trading volumes.

• Historically, avoiding only:

  • The second half of June, and

  • The second half of September
    has significantly improved returns versus remaining fully invested during those periods.

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