Where The Edge Lives

The Week Ahead 3/22/26

The Big Picture

Q1 2026 has unfolded almost lockstep to my Q1 Market Outlook, outlined in the playbook — energy on top, tech under pressure, and plenty of volatility in between. For anyone who missed the original roadmap, I’ve linked the full report below.

This week I’ll be rolling out my Q2 Market Outlook. It’s worth asking: how were so many of these moves visible months in advance? Markets don’t move randomly — they move in patterns. Seasonality, credit dynamics, and the Presidential Cycle all tend to rhyme. None of them are perfectly reliable in isolation, but when you layer them with technicals, sentiment, positioning, and the broader macro backdrop, a clear picture starts to emerge. That’s where the edge lives — in the overlap.

Last week closed on a cautious note as geopolitical risk around Iran kept traders uneasy. We tagged some key support zones and now the tape has to prove whether buyers can defend them or if this correction still has room to run. Short‑term setups hint at a bounce, but the larger question for Q2 — and the rest of the year — is whether that bounce should be sold into.

Macro & Data Watch

Continued weakness has sentiment quite negative here heading into the last week of March. Charts below shows data from Goldman highlighting the panic and the overall sentiment read from Subtrade highlighting this has been buying opportunities going back to 2023 (not a large enough sample size IMO)

Economic Calendar - Three Keys This Week

1. Labor & Growth Data Crosscurrents — Tuesday’s ADP report and the S&P Global PMIs set the tone. Another weak hiring print would keep rate‑cut hopes alive, but firm activity data could challenge that narrative and pressure front‑end yields. Watch how markets weigh resilience versus policy easing prospects.

2. Inflation Inputs & Energy Flows — Wednesday’s import/export price data, along with EIA and API inventory updates, will signal whether cooling trade prices and rising crude stockpiles can keep energy‑driven inflation contained. Oil volatility could ripple across both inflation expectations and sector rotation.

3. Sentiment & Fed Messaging — Thursday’s jobless claims and a full lineup of Fed speakers lead into Friday’s final Michigan Sentiment print. Any coordinated hawkish tone or a drop in consumer confidence below 55 would reinforce the “late‑cycle slowdown” narrative heading into Q2 positioning

Earnings Focus: This week’s earnings slate is light but informative. KB Home on Tuesday gives a direct read on single‑family housing demand, pricing power, and cancellation trends in a higher‑rate environment. PDD, CHWY, CTAS, and PAYX mid‑week offer a cross‑section of the consumer and labor cycle, from Chinese e‑commerce to U.S. pet spend and payroll activity. On the macro‑sensitive side, Jefferies will be key for capital markets and credit appetite, while Carnival’s print at the end of the week serves as a real‑time check on discretionary travel and forward booking strength

Stock & Sector Specifics

Last week of March is often a weaker time period, with the week after Triple Witching the Dow has been down 23 of the last 38 instances. However, we are nearing a turning point with Financials showing washed out levels where bounces often follow.

American Express with the same signal, nice setup here in my view

Single Stock & Dark Pool Alerts

United Health with the top #1 and #2 prints on Friday, also within this wedge, looks like accumulation.

Final Thoughts

Sentiment is getting washed out here, and that can set the stage for a contrarian snapback, but the way the indicators look, it’s not enough on its own to justify loading up on the long side yet. My bias is that a bounce is coming, and it will likely be strong enough to convince a lot of participants that fresh highs are back on deck. I won’t be in that camp; this is still a market for selectively picking the best setups, like the Financials highlighted above, and constantly skewing the probabilities in your favor. The base case remains a choppy, highly volatile year. Keep an eye out for my Q2 2026 Outlook Report dropping this week, where I’ll dig into the bigger picture in much more detail. Cheers.